| 基于Monte Carlo模拟的软土基坑隆起风险评估研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李明,吴波,张焕明,周鹏.基于Monte Carlo模拟的软土基坑隆起风险评估研究[J].福建工程学院学报,2018,0(6):541-546. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李明 吴波 张焕明 周鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建工程学院土木工程学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于圆弧滑动模型确定的安全系数，将基坑隆起破坏的不利事件划分为5种情况，利用Monte Carlo模拟确定不利事件发生概率，提出了考虑基坑隆起破坏引起的不利事件发生概率及经济损失的风险评估模型。将所提方法应用于福州地铁2号线某基坑工程中，结果表明，当围护结构插入比小于1.2时，加固对基坑隆起破坏损失期望减小效果显著；当围护结构插入比大于1.2时，加固对基坑隆起破坏损失期望减小效果一般；当插入比小于0.8时，基坑隆起破坏的损失期望等级属于“严重”；当插入比介于0.8～1.2时，基坑隆起破坏的损失期望等级属于“需要考虑”；当插入比大于1.2时，基坑隆起破坏的损失期望等级属于“可忽略”。
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| 关 键 词： | Monte Carlo模拟方法 基坑隆起 圆弧滑动 风险评估 |
Analysis of soft soil foundation pit heave based on Monte Carlo simulation |
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| LI Ming,WU Bo,ZHANG Huanming,ZHOU Peng.Analysis of soft soil foundation pit heave based on Monte Carlo simulation[J].Journal of Fujian University of Technology,2018,0(6):541-546. |
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| Authors: | LI Ming WU Bo ZHANG Huanming ZHOU Peng |
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| Affiliation: | School of Civil Engineering, Fujian University of Technology |
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| Abstract: | The adverse events of foundation pit heave were divided into five cases based on the safety factor of circular arc-sliding model. The probability of adverse events was determined by Monte Carlo simulation. A risk assessment model considering the probability and economic loss of adverse events caused by foundation pit heave was put forward. The proposed method was applied to a foundation pit of Fuzhou Metro Line NO. 2. Results show that the reducing effect of reinforcement on foundation pit heave’s loss expectation is remarkable when the insertion ratio of the enclosure structure is less than 1.2. The effect of reinforcement on the loss expectation of foundation pit heave is generally reduced when the insertion ratio of enclosure structure is greater than 1.2. When the insertion ratio is less than 0.8, the loss expectation grade of foundation pit uplift damage is "serious". When it is between 0.8 and 1.2, the loss expectation grade of foundation pit uplift is “consideration needed”. When it is greater than 1.2, the loss expectation grade of foundation pit uplift is “negligible”. |
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| Keywords: | Monte Carlo simulation method foundation pit heave circular arc sliding risk assessment |
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