| 基于社会安全阀的地方政务发布舆情预警模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 章留斌,彭程,钱浩然.基于社会安全阀的地方政务发布舆情预警模型研究[J].情报科学,2020,38(4):101-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 章留斌 彭程 钱浩然 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南民族大学文学与新闻传播学院,湖北武汉430074;哈尔滨师范大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150025;南京信息工程大学传媒与艺术学院,江苏南京210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省社科应用研究精品工程“江苏新型自媒体文化传播业态研究”(18SYC-110)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的/意义】随着互联网技术的不断发展,政府部门所面临的舆情压力与日俱增,因此针对政务微博发布的舆情预警的研究具有重要意义,而目前相关的研究多以数学建模的方式进行,从社会学角度的研究较少出现。【方法/过程】研究基于社会安全阀理论对微博数据展开分析并结合EGM灰色系统理论构建预警模型。【结果/结论】研究发现,政务发布具有转移敌意与情绪宣泄的作用,在舆论冲突的前期与潜伏期阶段存在危机和矛盾双层次预警。将湖北仙桃的群体事件代入模型进行验证分析,证明了模型的合理性与可操作性,存在较高的应用前景。
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| 关 键 词： | 网络舆情 政务发布 舆情预警 社会安全阀 |
Public Opinion Early Warning Model of Local Government Weibo Based on Social Safety Valve |
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| ZHANG Liu-bin,PENG Cheng,QIAN Hao-ran.Public Opinion Early Warning Model of Local Government Weibo Based on Social Safety Valve[J].Information Science,2020,38(4):101-107. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Liu-bin PENG Cheng QIAN Hao-ran |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Literature,Journalism&Communication,South-Central University For Nationalities,Wuhan 430074,China;.School of Management,Harbin Normal University,Harbin 150025,China;School of Media and Art,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China) |
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| Abstract: | 【Purpose/significance】With the development of Internet technology, the pressure of public opinion is increasing in government departments. Therefore, it is of great significance to study public opinion early warning of government affairs.At present, most of the related researches are carried out by mathematical modeling.【Method/process】Based on the theory of social safety valve, this paper analyzes the data and constructs the early warning model based on the theory of EGM grey system.【Result/conclusion】The issue of government affairs has the function of transferring hostility and emotional catharsis.There are two levels of early warning in crisis and contradiction in the early and latent stages of public opinion conflict. After analyzing the group events in Xiantao of Hubei, the rationality and operability of the model are proved. |
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| Keywords: | internet public opinion the weibo ofgovernment warning of public opinion social safety valve |
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