Dueling in the penalty box: evidence-based recommendations on how shooters and goalkeepers can win penalty shootouts in soccer

In soccer, penalty kicks can decide the outcome of a match and in recent years, much effort has been invested in trying to identify the factors that influence successful performance. This overview presents some of the most important findings in order to compile a reliable set of facts that can improve the probability of success for either penalty takers or goalkeepers. Particular attention is paid to various strategic aspects in the shooter–goalkeeper interaction as previous research suggests that the chances of success on both sides may be greatly enhanced by applying findings from research in sport psychology. The article ends with a checklist that goalkeepers and penalty takers may use to improve their chances of success alongside recommendations to continue and intensify the efforts to carry out ecologically valid experiments in future research.     

Avoidance motivation and choking under pressure in soccer penalty shootouts

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationships between shot valence, avoidance behavior, and performance in soccer penalty shootouts. Video analyses were conducted with all penalty shootouts ever held in the World Cup, the European Championships, and the UEFA Champions League (n = 36 shootouts, 359 kicks). Shot valence was assessed from the potential consequences of a shot outcome as follows: Shots where a goal instantly leads to victory were classified as positive valence shots and shots where a miss instantly leads to loss as negative valence shots. Avoidance behavior was defined as looking away from the goalkeeper or preparing the shot quickly (thus speeding up the wait). The results showed that avoidance behavior occurred more with negative valence shots than with positive shots and that players with negative valence shots performed worse than those with positive shots. Thus, avoidance motivation may help explain why professional athletes occasionally choke under pressure.     

The development of a method for identifying penalty kick strategies in association football

Penalty takers in association football adopt either a keeper-independent or a keeper-dependent strategy, with the benefits of the keeper-independent strategy presumed to be greater. Yet, despite its relevance for research and practitioners, thus far no method for identifying penalty kick strategies has been available. To develop a validated and reliable method, Experiment 1 assessed characteristics that observers should use to distinguish the two strategies. We asked participants to rate 12 characteristics of pre-recorded clips of kicks of penalty takers that used either a keeper-independent or keeper-dependent strategy. A logistic regression model identified three variables (attention to the goalkeeper, run-up fluency and kicking technique) that in combination predicted kick strategy in 92% of the penalties. We used the model in Experiment 2 to analyse prevalence and efficacy of both the strategies for penalty kicks in penalty shoot-outs during FIFA World Cups (1986–2010) and UEFA Football Championships (1984–2012). The keeper-independent strategy was used much more frequently (i.e., 78–86%) than the keeper-dependent strategy, but successes did not differ. Penalty takers should use both the strategies to be less predictable. Goalkeepers can use the developed model to improve their chances to succeed by adjusting their behaviour to penalty takers’ preferred penalty kick strategy.     

Dynamics of visual feedback in a laboratory simulation of a penalty kick

Sport scientists have devoted relatively little attention to soccer penalty kicks, despite their decisive role in important competitions such as the World Cup. Two possible kicker strategies have been described: ignoring the goalkeeper action (open loop) or trying to react to the goalkeeper action (closed loop). We used a paradigm simulating a penalty kick in the laboratory to investigate the dynamics of the closed-loop strategy in these controlled conditions. The probability of correctly responding to the simulated goalkeeper motion as a function of time available followed a logistic curve. Kickers on average reached perfect performance only if the goalkeeper committed him or herself to one side about 400 ms before ball contact and showed chance performance if the goalkeeper motion occurred less than 150 ms before ball contact. Interestingly, coincidence judgement?-?another aspect of the laboratory responses?-?appeared to be affected for a much longer time (>500 ms) than was needed to correctly determine laterality. The present study is meant as groundwork for experiments in more ecological conditions applicable to kickers and goalkeepers.     

Dynamics of visual feedback in a laboratory simulation of a penalty kick

Sport scientists have devoted relatively little attention to soccer penalty kicks, despite their decisive role in important competitions such as the World Cup. Two possible kicker strategies have been described: ignoring the goalkeeper action (open loop) or trying to react to the goalkeeper action (closed loop). We used a paradigm simulating a penalty kick in the laboratory to investigate the dynamics of the closed-loop strategy in these controlled conditions. The probability of correctly responding to the simulated goalkeeper motion as a function of time available followed a logistic curve. Kickers on average reached perfect performance only if the goalkeeper committed him or herself to one side about 400 ms before ball contact and showed chance performance if the goalkeeper motion occurred less than 150 ms before ball contact. Interestingly, coincidence judgement--another aspect of the laboratory responses--appeared to be affected for a much longer time (> 500 ms) than was needed to correctly determine laterality. The present study is meant as groundwork for experiments in more ecological conditions applicable to kickers and goalkeepers.     

Goalkeeping in the soccer penalty kick

The goalkeeper’s difficulty in the soccer penalty kick originates from the extreme spatiotemporal constraints of the situation. The present review claims that the current understanding is biased toward attributing a goalkeeper’s success in saving a penalty kick to perceptual–cognitive skill. To investigate the goalkeeper’s skill, researchers have often adopted video tasks. In doing so, they studied perceptual skill in isolation from action. We use affordance-based control theory to propose an alternative understanding and research methodology. We argue that goalkeepers in the penalty kick situation should regulate their actions in ways that sustain the perception of stoppability. To capture this, we outline the building blocks for a required lateral velocity model, in which the goalkeepers’ required actions are scaled to their maximum capabilities. In doing so, we provide new directions for research.     

Emotional contagion in soccer penalty shootouts: Celebration of individual success is associated with ultimate team success

Abstract

We examined the association between celebratory responses after successful soccer penalty kicks and the outcome of a penalty shootout. Individually displayed post-shot behaviours in penalty shootouts held in World Cups and European Championships (N = 151) were rated on the presence of universally distinct and recognizable behaviours associated with positive emotions. Using chi-square analyses we investigated which behaviours were associated with winning the shootout, when the relative standing between the teams was equal. Players who engaged in certain celebratory post-shot behaviours were more likely to be in the team that ultimately won the penalty shootout. In particular, celebrations including both arms were associated with winning the shootout. It was more likely that the next kick taken by an opponent was missed after a player displayed these behaviours after a goal than when he did not. The findings are interpreted in terms of emotional contagion – that is, the transference of emotions from individuals onto teammates and opponents. It is suggested that the individual expression of post-performance emotions serves a direct purpose in enhancing future team performance and that emotional contagion is an important process in the context of elite sport performance.     

国外足球点球心理研究进展

点球是现代足球竞赛中的重要技术,对比赛结果具有显著的影响。点球心理研究是足球心理研究中的热点议题。该文从队服颜色效应、罚球员与守门员的非言语行为、罚球员射门策略以及预测罚球员射门区域的先行线索等四个方面对国外足球点球心理研究现状进行了系统回顾与总结,认为每个影响守门员或罚球员的因素均可应用于守门员或罚球员的指导与训练。在对国外研究现状分析的基础上提出了未来的研究方向提高研究的生态学效度与加强质性研究,重视心理干预研究以提升球员的抗压能力。     

How does the modern football goalkeeper train? – An exploration of expert goalkeeper coaches’ skill training approaches

ABSTRACT

The football goalkeeper position arguably represents a unique role within the team sport. Despite its highly complex skill demands, research on football goalkeeping has only sporadically examined the position within isolated and limited parameters. In particular, there is limited literature on “modern” skill acquisition training methods and approaches within the field of goalkeeper training. In a cross-cultural study with fifteen expert goalkeeper coaches, researchers here examined the overarching research question of “how does the modern football goalkeeper train?”. Semi-structured interviews explored expert coaches’ views on critical skills for performance in goalkeeping and the training approaches used to develop these critical skills. Results indicate that four skill sets are considered essential by goalkeeper coaches, these are: decision-making skills, athleticism, mentality, and technical skills. In terms of developing these skills in goalkeeper-specific training, the majority of expert coaches apply a similar microstructure to training sessions. This structure involves a steady progression from simple to complex training tasks, where for large parts, isolated technical training appears to be prioritised over a holistic training approach that integrates technical skills and perceptual-cognitive components (e.g., decision making). Scientific and practical recommendations for researchers and practitioners in the field of football goalkeeper coaching are provided.     

基于先验信息条件下足球守门员的知觉预测研究

目的：研究守门员基于先验信息下的知觉预测能力,探索当守门员处于射门方向（实际方向）与对手点球偏好（概率方向）一致或不一致的情境下,对表现有效性和加工效率的影响。方法：通过网络平台招募专业足球守门员（专业组）和业余足球守门员（业余组）各16名,共计32名被试。使用E-prime 3.0进行守门员点球方向判断实验,记录被试知觉预测的正确率和反应时。结果：基于先验信息进行知觉预测时,专业组守门员的知觉预测正确率显著高于业余组守门员。不同组别的反应时具有显著性差异,具体表现为在偏好一致（或不一致）的情况下,专业组的反应时都高于业余组。不同偏好条件下的正确率具有显著性差异,其中专业组被试在偏好不同的情况下具有显著性差异,业余组则无显著性差异。结论：与业余守门员相比,专业守门员在基于先验信息进行知觉预测时能更加准确地预判罚点球运动员的射门方向,即在知觉预测上存在专家优势。     

中超足球守门员的技术、战术统计与分析

采用文献资料法、数理统计法和录像观察法,对中超足球联赛守门员的技战术行为时间和空间特征进行分析。认为守门员的守门水平主要取决于移动中掌握技术的能力,判断不是最主要方面;而守门员用脚主动处理球时与脚法有关,被动处理与判断选位有关,在固定战术配合中角球判断选位更重要,任意球注重射入门角的来球站位。射门成功率最高的区域是16米以内的距离,守门员失误的诱因是判断、选位和基本姿势。     

On winning the penalty shoot-out in soccer

The penalty shoot-out is used to break tied games in the knock-out stages of soccer competition. The shoot-out, which consists of an alternating series of penalty kicks, is won by the team with the highest goal tally after n kicks per team (n = 5). In the event of a tie after five penalty kicks each, the shoot-out progresses to 'sudden death' by increasing n in iterative fashion (i.e. n = n + 1) until one team obtains a higher goal tally than the other after an equal number of kicks per team. The team to strike first is determined at the end of extra time by the toss of a coin. As each on-field player can be awarded only a single penalty kick, the line-up order in which the penalty kicks are taken allows for the possibility of tactical influence on the final outcome. Consequently, we report a probability analysis of the penalty shoot-out in soccer from which we identify the following pre- and post-game strategies. The best five ranked penalty takers from the on-field players should be assigned to the first five penalty kicks in their reverse order of ability. That is, the fifth best penalty taker should take the first penalty kick, the fourth best penalty taker should take the second penalty kick, and so on. In the event of sudden death, the next highest ranked on-field player should be assigned to the next penalty kick until the shoot-out ends. For this tactic to be successful, players should be ranked a priori on their penalty-taking ability. Similarly, goalkeepers should be ranked a priori on their penalty-stopping ability. These findings indicate that the tactical substitution of on-field players for higher ranked penalty takers, including higher ranked penalty stoppers (i.e. goalkeepers), with a view to an impending penalty shoot-out should be given due consideration. These results are of practical importance in that they are shown to maximize the likelihood of winning the penalty shoot-out under certain initial conditions.     

On winning the penalty shoot-out in soccer

The penalty shoot-out is used to break tied games in the knock-out stages of soccer competition. The shoot-out, which consists of an alternating series of penalty kicks, is won by the team with the highest goal tally after n kicks per team (n = 5). In the event of a tie after five penalty kicks each, the shoot-out progresses to 'sudden death' by increasing n in iterative fashion (i.e. n = n + 1) until one team obtains a higher goal tally than the other after an equal number of kicks per team. The team to strike first is determined at the end of extra time by the toss of a coin. As each on-field player can be awarded only a single penalty kick, the line-up order in which the penalty kicks are taken allows for the possibility of tactical influence on the final outcome. Consequently, we report a probability analysis of the penalty shoot-out in soccer from which we identify the following pre- and post-game strategies. The best five ranked penalty takers from the on-field players should be assigned to the first five penalty kicks in their reverse order of ability. That is, the fifth best penalty taker should take the first penalty kick, the fourth best penalty taker should take the second penalty kick, and so on. In the event of sudden death, the next highest ranked on-field player should be assigned to the next penalty kick until the shoot-out ends. For this tactic to be successful, players should be ranked a priori on their penalty-taking ability. Similarly, goalkeepers should be ranked a priori on their penalty-stopping ability. These findings indicate that the tactical substitution of on-field players for higher ranked penalty takers, including higher ranked penalty stoppers (i.e. goalkeepers), with a view to an impending penalty shoot-out should be given due consideration. These results are of practical importance in that they are shown to maximize the likelihood of winning the penalty shoot-out under certain initial conditions.     

Kicks from the penalty mark in soccer: the roles of stress, skill, and fatigue for kick outcomes

The soccer "penalty shootout" in the knock-out phase of major international tournaments is one of the most dramatic events in international soccer. The outcome of these kicks is typically attributed to factors such as psychology (e.g. coping with stress), skill (e.g. kicking technique), physiology (e.g. overcoming the fatigue of 120 min play), and chance (e.g. in what direction the goalkeeper moves). The purpose of this study was to use internet game record data to estimate the relative importance of these performance components for the outcome of penalty kicks in international matches. Data were collected from soccer statistics internet sites on all 41 penalty shootouts and 409 kicks taken in the World Cup, European Championships, and Copa America between 1976 and 2004. The results showed that the importance of the kicks (indicative of stress) was negatively related to the outcomes of the kicks, whereas skill and fatigue were less, or not, related to outcome. It was concluded that psychological components are most influential for the outcome of penalty kicks. We recommend that practitioners work with players to reduce the perceived importance of each kick.     

Performance analysis research: Meeting the challenge

Abstract

The keeper-independent strategy, in which a football penalty kicker selects a target location in advance and ignores the goalkeeper's actions during the run-up, has been suggested to be the preferable strategy for taking a penalty kick. The current in-field experiment investigated the question of whether the goalkeeper can indeed be ignored. Ten intermediate-level football players were instructed to adopt a goalkeeper-independent strategy and to perform penalty kicks directed at one of two targets located in the upper corners of the goal under three conditions: without a goalkeeper, in the presence of a goalkeeper (who tried to save the ball), and in the presence of a goalkeeper who was informed by the penalty kickers where they intended to direct the ball. The mere presence of a goalkeeper impaired shot accuracy. The shots were more centralised, that is, biased toward the goalkeeper. The effects were enhanced for the condition in which the penalty kicker knew the goalkeeper was knowledgeable about ball direction. The findings were consistent with the response activation model that holds that aiming at a target can be biased toward salient visual non-targets. The implications for adopting and practising goalkeeper-independent strategies are discussed.     

冰球守门员心理训练模式的构建

守门员在冰球运动中具有核心的作用,守门员比赛中心理变化情况往往决定了整支冰球队在场上的表现,对比赛成绩具有决定性的影响。提高守门员的心理素质是保证守门员在比赛中能正常或超常发挥运动技能的前提条件,也是完善冰球运动训练体系,增强运动员临场表现的必要途径。从改善守门员心理承压能力,保持高度注意力,提高应变反应速度,控制比赛情绪等几个方面论述了心理训练对冰球守门员的重要价值。提出冰球守门员心理训练模式构建中应注意个体差异与理论认知的水平,遵循循序渐进的训练理念,要有针对性地对守门员施以心理影响;并从培养教练掌握基础的心理知识与方法入手,坚持长期心理训练与短期心理训练相结合、多种心理训练手段相结合构建冰球守门员心理训练模式。     

Informational constraints on interceptive actions of elite football goalkeepers in 1v1 dyads during competitive performance

The aim of this study was to examine whether perceptual variables can provide informational constraints for the goalkeepers to intercept the ball successfully in 1v1 dyads. Video images of 42 actions (1v1 in direct shots) were selected randomly from different matches and divided into conceded goals (n = 20) and saved actions (n = 22) to investigate interceptive actions of 20 goalkeepers in the English Premier League in season 2013–2014. Time to Contact (TTC) of the closing distance gap between shooter and goalkeeper was obtained by digitising actions in the 18-yard penalty box. Statistical analyses revealed that, in sequences of play resulting in an intercepted shot at goal, goalkeepers closed down outfield players in the X axis, whereas when a goal was conceded, there was a significantly delayed movement by goalkeepers toward the shooters in this plane. The results of canonical correlations showed that a decreasing distance between a shooter and goalkeeper, and accompanied reduction in relative interpersonal velocity followed a temporal pattern. Findings of this study showed how perception of key informational constraints on dyadic system relations, such as TTC, interpersonal distance and relative velocity, constrain elite goalkeepers’ interceptive actions, playing an important role in successful performance.     

Analysis of direct free kicks in the women's football World Cup 2007

Abstract

The location and outcome of all free kicks taken directly at goal in the 2007 women's football World Cup were assessed to identify areas with the most goal-scoring potential and assist with tactical decisions and training design. Video of all free kicks taken directly at goal in the 32 games was captured and the location of the ball on the pitch was calculated from pitch markings and image pixel coordinates using a customized curve-fitting method. The outcome of each free kick was determined and for those that resulted in a goal or were saved, information on ball flight time and the placement of the ball relative to the goal was reported. All seven free kicks that resulted in a goal were taken from a central area within 7 m of the penalty circle, placed at the edge of the goal within approximately 1 m of the goalpost, and had an average flight time of 1.09 s, which was significantly faster than for those that were saved. All free kicks directed towards the bottom and centre of the goal resulted in straightforward saves for the goalkeeper. It is recommended that teams should consider a direct shot from free kicks awarded within 7 m of the penalty circle. For free kicks from wide areas and areas further from the goal, players should be aware of their individual ability and only take a shot when they perceive the probability of scoring a goal to be high. Otherwise, alternative attacking strategies should be considered to avoid an easy turnover of possession.