A field simulation study of the effectiveness of penalty kick strategies in soccer: late alterations of kick direction increase errors and reduce accuracy

This field experiment investigated the relative merits of approaching the penalty kick with either a keeper-independent or keeper-dependent strategy. In the keeper-independent strategy, the shooter selects a target location in advance and disregards the goalkeeper's actions during the run-up. In the keeper-dependent strategy, the shooter makes a decision resting on the anticipation of the goalkeeper's movements during the run-up. Ten intermediate-level soccer players shot at one of two visually specified targets to the right and left side of the goal. In the keeper-independent strategy condition, participants were told that the visually specified target would not change. In the keeper-dependent strategy condition, participants were told that in half of the trials the visually specified target would change side at different times before ball contact, indicating that the direction of the kick needed to be altered. The results showed that penalty-taking performance was apt to be less than perfect in the keeper-dependent strategy condition. A decrease in the time available to alter kick direction resulted in a higher risk of not only an incorrect but also inaccurate shot placement. It is concluded that anticipating the goalkeeper's movements may degrade penalty kick performance, mainly due to insufficient time to modify the kicking action.     

A field simulation study of the effectiveness of penalty kick strategies in soccer: Late alterations of kick direction increase errors and reduce accuracy

Abstract

This field experiment investigated the relative merits of approaching the penalty kick with either a keeper-independent or keeper-dependent strategy. In the keeper-independent strategy, the shooter selects a target location in advance and disregards the goalkeeper's actions during the run-up. In the keeper-dependent strategy, the shooter makes a decision resting on the anticipation of the goalkeeper's movements during the run-up. Ten intermediate-level soccer players shot at one of two visually specified targets to the right and left side of the goal. In the keeper-independent strategy condition, participants were told that the visually specified target would not change. In the keeper-dependent strategy condition, participants were told that in half of the trials the visually specified target would change side at different times before ball contact, indicating that the direction of the kick needed to be altered. The results showed that penalty-taking performance was apt to be less than perfect in the keeper-dependent strategy condition. A decrease in the time available to alter kick direction resulted in a higher risk of not only an incorrect but also inaccurate shot placement. It is concluded that anticipating the goalkeeper's movements may degrade penalty kick performance, mainly due to insufficient time to modify the kicking action.     

On winning the penalty shoot-out in soccer

The penalty shoot-out is used to break tied games in the knock-out stages of soccer competition. The shoot-out, which consists of an alternating series of penalty kicks, is won by the team with the highest goal tally after n kicks per team (n = 5). In the event of a tie after five penalty kicks each, the shoot-out progresses to 'sudden death' by increasing n in iterative fashion (i.e. n = n + 1) until one team obtains a higher goal tally than the other after an equal number of kicks per team. The team to strike first is determined at the end of extra time by the toss of a coin. As each on-field player can be awarded only a single penalty kick, the line-up order in which the penalty kicks are taken allows for the possibility of tactical influence on the final outcome. Consequently, we report a probability analysis of the penalty shoot-out in soccer from which we identify the following pre- and post-game strategies. The best five ranked penalty takers from the on-field players should be assigned to the first five penalty kicks in their reverse order of ability. That is, the fifth best penalty taker should take the first penalty kick, the fourth best penalty taker should take the second penalty kick, and so on. In the event of sudden death, the next highest ranked on-field player should be assigned to the next penalty kick until the shoot-out ends. For this tactic to be successful, players should be ranked a priori on their penalty-taking ability. Similarly, goalkeepers should be ranked a priori on their penalty-stopping ability. These findings indicate that the tactical substitution of on-field players for higher ranked penalty takers, including higher ranked penalty stoppers (i.e. goalkeepers), with a view to an impending penalty shoot-out should be given due consideration. These results are of practical importance in that they are shown to maximize the likelihood of winning the penalty shoot-out under certain initial conditions.     

On winning the penalty shoot-out in soccer

The penalty shoot-out is used to break tied games in the knock-out stages of soccer competition. The shoot-out, which consists of an alternating series of penalty kicks, is won by the team with the highest goal tally after n kicks per team (n = 5). In the event of a tie after five penalty kicks each, the shoot-out progresses to 'sudden death' by increasing n in iterative fashion (i.e. n = n + 1) until one team obtains a higher goal tally than the other after an equal number of kicks per team. The team to strike first is determined at the end of extra time by the toss of a coin. As each on-field player can be awarded only a single penalty kick, the line-up order in which the penalty kicks are taken allows for the possibility of tactical influence on the final outcome. Consequently, we report a probability analysis of the penalty shoot-out in soccer from which we identify the following pre- and post-game strategies. The best five ranked penalty takers from the on-field players should be assigned to the first five penalty kicks in their reverse order of ability. That is, the fifth best penalty taker should take the first penalty kick, the fourth best penalty taker should take the second penalty kick, and so on. In the event of sudden death, the next highest ranked on-field player should be assigned to the next penalty kick until the shoot-out ends. For this tactic to be successful, players should be ranked a priori on their penalty-taking ability. Similarly, goalkeepers should be ranked a priori on their penalty-stopping ability. These findings indicate that the tactical substitution of on-field players for higher ranked penalty takers, including higher ranked penalty stoppers (i.e. goalkeepers), with a view to an impending penalty shoot-out should be given due consideration. These results are of practical importance in that they are shown to maximize the likelihood of winning the penalty shoot-out under certain initial conditions.     

Performance analysis research: Meeting the challenge

Abstract

The keeper-independent strategy, in which a football penalty kicker selects a target location in advance and ignores the goalkeeper's actions during the run-up, has been suggested to be the preferable strategy for taking a penalty kick. The current in-field experiment investigated the question of whether the goalkeeper can indeed be ignored. Ten intermediate-level football players were instructed to adopt a goalkeeper-independent strategy and to perform penalty kicks directed at one of two targets located in the upper corners of the goal under three conditions: without a goalkeeper, in the presence of a goalkeeper (who tried to save the ball), and in the presence of a goalkeeper who was informed by the penalty kickers where they intended to direct the ball. The mere presence of a goalkeeper impaired shot accuracy. The shots were more centralised, that is, biased toward the goalkeeper. The effects were enhanced for the condition in which the penalty kicker knew the goalkeeper was knowledgeable about ball direction. The findings were consistent with the response activation model that holds that aiming at a target can be biased toward salient visual non-targets. The implications for adopting and practising goalkeeper-independent strategies are discussed.     

Dueling in the penalty box: evidence-based recommendations on how shooters and goalkeepers can win penalty shootouts in soccer

In soccer, penalty kicks can decide the outcome of a match and in recent years, much effort has been invested in trying to identify the factors that influence successful performance. This overview presents some of the most important findings in order to compile a reliable set of facts that can improve the probability of success for either penalty takers or goalkeepers. Particular attention is paid to various strategic aspects in the shooter–goalkeeper interaction as previous research suggests that the chances of success on both sides may be greatly enhanced by applying findings from research in sport psychology. The article ends with a checklist that goalkeepers and penalty takers may use to improve their chances of success alongside recommendations to continue and intensify the efforts to carry out ecologically valid experiments in future research.     

Visual search, anticipation and expertise in soccer goalkeepers

We used a novel methodological approach to examine skill-based differences in anticipation and visual search behaviour during the penalty kick in soccer. Expert and novice goalkeepers were required to move a joystick in response to penalty kicks presented on film. The proportion of penalties saved was assessed, as well as the frequency and time of initiation of joystick corrections. Visual search behaviour was examined using an eye movement registration system. Expert goalkeepers were generally more accurate in predicting the direction of the penalty kick, waited longer before initiating a response and made fewer corrective movements with the joystick. The expert goalkeepers used a more efficient search strategy involving fewer fixations of longer duration to less disparate areas of the display. The novices spent longer fixating on the trunk, arms and hips, whereas the experts found the kicking leg, non-kicking leg and ball areas to be more informative, particularly as the moment of foot-ball contact approached. No differences in visual search behaviour were observed between successful and unsuccessful penalties. The results have implications for improving anticipation skill at penalty kicks.     

Visual search,anticipation and expertise in soccer goalkeepers

We used a novel methodological approach to examine skill-based differences in anticipation and visual search behaviour during the penalty kick in soccer. Expert and novice goalkeepers were required to move a joystick in response to penalty kicks presented on film. The proportion of penalties saved was assessed, as well as the frequency and time of initiation of joystick corrections. Visual search behaviour was examined using an eye movement registration system. Expert goalkeepers were generally more accurate in predicting the direction of the penalty kick, waited longer before initiating a response and made fewer corrective movements with the joystick. The expert goalkeepers used a more efficient search strategy involving fewer fixations of longer duration to less disparate areas of the display. The novices spent longer fixating on the trunk, arms and hips, whereas the experts found the kicking leg, non-kicking leg and ball areas to be more informative, particularly as the moment of foot-ball contact approached. No differences in visual search behaviour were observed between successful and unsuccessful penalties. The results have implications for improving anticipation skill at penalty kicks.     

国外足球点球心理研究进展

点球是现代足球竞赛中的重要技术,对比赛结果具有显著的影响。点球心理研究是足球心理研究中的热点议题。该文从队服颜色效应、罚球员与守门员的非言语行为、罚球员射门策略以及预测罚球员射门区域的先行线索等四个方面对国外足球点球心理研究现状进行了系统回顾与总结,认为每个影响守门员或罚球员的因素均可应用于守门员或罚球员的指导与训练。在对国外研究现状分析的基础上提出了未来的研究方向提高研究的生态学效度与加强质性研究,重视心理干预研究以提升球员的抗压能力。     

Attention towards the goalkeeper and distraction during penalty shootouts in association football: a retrospective analysis of penalty shootouts from 1984 to 2012

In the present study, we tested the consequences of attention towards goalkeepers in association football penalty shootouts that have exclusively been derived from laboratory experiments. We conducted a retrospective analysis of all penalty shootouts during FIFA World Cups (1986–2010) and UEFA European Football Championships (1984–2012). We linked key variables of previous laboratory research to observable behaviour in the field that was coded by two independent coders. The following hypotheses were tested: first, attention towards goalkeepers results in more saves/better goalkeeper performance; second, goalkeepers can deliberately distract penalty takers by drawing attention towards themselves which results in less accurate penalty kicks/better goalkeeper performance. Results were in line with previous laboratory analyses as they showed that attention towards goalkeepers resulted in more saves/better goalkeeping performance. Further, if goalkeepers distracted penalty takers this also resulted in better goalkeeping performance. The applied implications of these findings are discussed for both goalkeepers and penalty takers in association football.     

Kicks from the penalty mark in soccer: the roles of stress, skill, and fatigue for kick outcomes

The soccer "penalty shootout" in the knock-out phase of major international tournaments is one of the most dramatic events in international soccer. The outcome of these kicks is typically attributed to factors such as psychology (e.g. coping with stress), skill (e.g. kicking technique), physiology (e.g. overcoming the fatigue of 120 min play), and chance (e.g. in what direction the goalkeeper moves). The purpose of this study was to use internet game record data to estimate the relative importance of these performance components for the outcome of penalty kicks in international matches. Data were collected from soccer statistics internet sites on all 41 penalty shootouts and 409 kicks taken in the World Cup, European Championships, and Copa America between 1976 and 2004. The results showed that the importance of the kicks (indicative of stress) was negatively related to the outcomes of the kicks, whereas skill and fatigue were less, or not, related to outcome. It was concluded that psychological components are most influential for the outcome of penalty kicks. We recommend that practitioners work with players to reduce the perceived importance of each kick.     

Analysis of direct free kicks in the women's football World Cup 2007

Abstract

The location and outcome of all free kicks taken directly at goal in the 2007 women's football World Cup were assessed to identify areas with the most goal-scoring potential and assist with tactical decisions and training design. Video of all free kicks taken directly at goal in the 32 games was captured and the location of the ball on the pitch was calculated from pitch markings and image pixel coordinates using a customized curve-fitting method. The outcome of each free kick was determined and for those that resulted in a goal or were saved, information on ball flight time and the placement of the ball relative to the goal was reported. All seven free kicks that resulted in a goal were taken from a central area within 7 m of the penalty circle, placed at the edge of the goal within approximately 1 m of the goalpost, and had an average flight time of 1.09 s, which was significantly faster than for those that were saved. All free kicks directed towards the bottom and centre of the goal resulted in straightforward saves for the goalkeeper. It is recommended that teams should consider a direct shot from free kicks awarded within 7 m of the penalty circle. For free kicks from wide areas and areas further from the goal, players should be aware of their individual ability and only take a shot when they perceive the probability of scoring a goal to be high. Otherwise, alternative attacking strategies should be considered to avoid an easy turnover of possession.     

运动员的趋避动机冲突对罚点球成功率的影响的实验性研究

针对运动员在足球罚点球时存在的趋避动机冲突进行了准实验。实验结果表明：（１）当罚点球风险性较大时，趋的动机强度大于避的动机强度，有利于罚点球成功率的提高。（２）趋避动机强度对罚点球成功率的影响存在着性别差异，专业熟练程度差异。     

Dynamics of visual feedback in a laboratory simulation of a penalty kick

Sport scientists have devoted relatively little attention to soccer penalty kicks, despite their decisive role in important competitions such as the World Cup. Two possible kicker strategies have been described: ignoring the goalkeeper action (open loop) or trying to react to the goalkeeper action (closed loop). We used a paradigm simulating a penalty kick in the laboratory to investigate the dynamics of the closed-loop strategy in these controlled conditions. The probability of correctly responding to the simulated goalkeeper motion as a function of time available followed a logistic curve. Kickers on average reached perfect performance only if the goalkeeper committed him or herself to one side about 400 ms before ball contact and showed chance performance if the goalkeeper motion occurred less than 150 ms before ball contact. Interestingly, coincidence judgement--another aspect of the laboratory responses--appeared to be affected for a much longer time (> 500 ms) than was needed to correctly determine laterality. The present study is meant as groundwork for experiments in more ecological conditions applicable to kickers and goalkeepers.     

现代竞技足球比赛中点球判罚的影响因素分析

采用文献资料法、观察统计法、数理统计法及访谈法,对第19届世界杯足球赛决赛阶段点球判罚情况进行统计研究,对比赛中影响点球判罚的相关因素进行分析。结果表明,规则、裁判等因素对比赛中点球的判罚具有影响作用,对这些因素进行客观分析,为现代竞技足球比赛中点球的判罚提供参考和依据。     

Dynamics of visual feedback in a laboratory simulation of a penalty kick

Sport scientists have devoted relatively little attention to soccer penalty kicks, despite their decisive role in important competitions such as the World Cup. Two possible kicker strategies have been described: ignoring the goalkeeper action (open loop) or trying to react to the goalkeeper action (closed loop). We used a paradigm simulating a penalty kick in the laboratory to investigate the dynamics of the closed-loop strategy in these controlled conditions. The probability of correctly responding to the simulated goalkeeper motion as a function of time available followed a logistic curve. Kickers on average reached perfect performance only if the goalkeeper committed him or herself to one side about 400 ms before ball contact and showed chance performance if the goalkeeper motion occurred less than 150 ms before ball contact. Interestingly, coincidence judgement?-?another aspect of the laboratory responses?-?appeared to be affected for a much longer time (>500 ms) than was needed to correctly determine laterality. The present study is meant as groundwork for experiments in more ecological conditions applicable to kickers and goalkeepers.     

Free kick goals in football: an unlikely success between failure and embarrassment

We develop and use a numerical model to investigate the window of opportunity of free kicks in association football. The planar multibody forward dynamics model comprises a two segment leg model with joint actuations, a football, a wall and the turf. Contact mechanics is defined to model the impact of the foot and the ball’s interaction with the different elements in the environment. The optimum kick is determined using the global optimization algorithm differential evolution, requiring millions of kick simulations. The sensitivity of various solutions to parameter perturbation is investigated. It is concluded that toe kicks are theoretically superior to instep kicks, but are difficult to perform reliably. The results also show that small perturbations in parameters can lead to embarrassingly failed kicks.     

Goalkeeping in the soccer penalty kick

The goalkeeper’s difficulty in the soccer penalty kick originates from the extreme spatiotemporal constraints of the situation. The present review claims that the current understanding is biased toward attributing a goalkeeper’s success in saving a penalty kick to perceptual–cognitive skill. To investigate the goalkeeper’s skill, researchers have often adopted video tasks. In doing so, they studied perceptual skill in isolation from action. We use affordance-based control theory to propose an alternative understanding and research methodology. We argue that goalkeepers in the penalty kick situation should regulate their actions in ways that sustain the perception of stoppability. To capture this, we outline the building blocks for a required lateral velocity model, in which the goalkeepers’ required actions are scaled to their maximum capabilities. In doing so, we provide new directions for research.