基于CGE模型的水资源政策模拟分析简

全面建设节水型社会，实现水资源的高效利用、合理配置和可持续发展是21世纪中国国家发展的重要战略。调整水资源要素水价、削减生产用水补贴和促进用水技术进步是实现有效节水的对策。基于水资源同时以水要素和水商品形式存在的特点和我国水资源报酬征收的实际情况，本文建立了包含水生产与供应业、水资源要素报酬、生产用水补贴的水资源可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）；建立了提高水资源要素价格、调整生产用水补贴和技术进步3种情景；以江西省为例，编制SAM表并利用CGE模型模拟各情景对经济和社会的影响，并且对同一节水目标下3种情景的模拟结果进行比较分析。研究结果表明：提高水资源要素价格、削减生产用水补贴和技术进步都能促进用水效率提高，减少总用水需求量；但无论从总产出、GDP、就业、物价水平还是居民及企业收入等指标看，前两种情景会对经济产生负面影响，且削减生产用水补贴的负面影响更大，技术进步则在达到节水目标的同时能够促进经济发展；3种情景变化对农业的产出和用水量影响显著，说明农业节水潜力巨大。进行政策选择时应该慎重考虑各种政策的影响和政策的可操作性，将农业作为重点节水行业，并长期大力推广节水技术。

Water Resource Policy Simulation and Analysis in Jiangxi Province Based on CGE Model

Owing to increasing uncertainty caused by climate change and rapid economic development,water resource management is facing dynamic and complex challenges. Construction of a water-saving society is one of China's national development strategies and various policies have been implemented. Computable general equilibrium models (CGE) are becoming a popular method for analyzing the impact of environment policy on economic development in. Here,we establish a water resources computable general equilibrium model (WCGE),which includes the water production and supply industry,water resources price and subsidy. Three scenarios adjust the water resource price,reducing subsidized water and promoting water-using technology progress. Using Jiangxi province as an example,this paper simulates and analyses the three policies' economic and social impacts. The results show that the three policies can enhance water utilization efficiency and decrease the consumption of water. Increasing the water resource price and reducing subsidized water will have negative impacts on the economy,employment,resident and enterprise revenue,while water-using technology progress can promote the economy and water-saving. Agriculture is very sensitive to all scenarios and has great water-saving potential. In conclusion, many water policies can be adopted to control the rapid growth in water demand and consideration must be given to each policy before implementation. The Jiangxi Government should consider agriculture as the most important sector to implement water conservation,and variety measures should be steadily and continuously adopted to promote water conservation technology.