网络舆情演变过程的主体博弈及对策研究

目的/意义] 为探寻网络舆情演变的动力机制，本文采用演化博弈工具，试图厘清参与主体与舆情发展间的内在关联。方法/过程] 首先构建了网络舆情潜伏期、发展期、爆发期及消退期的演化博弈模型，通过求解博弈均衡和雅克比矩阵分析了网络舆情的演变路径和关联条件，以博弈主体之间的利益依存探讨了网络舆情发展演变的内在机制；在此基础上，在Matlab平台上对西安地铁3号线"问题电缆事件"舆情演变过程进行仿真模拟，并重点检验了心理满足程度对博弈均衡的影响。结果/结论] 处于不同发展时期的网络舆情，影响其未来走势的关键因素也有所不同；参与网络舆情的各方主体共同影响着舆情演变的方向；政府部门的作为对网络舆情影响重大；心理满足系数对网民的决策至关重要，甚至能够改变舆情事件的发展走向。

Research on the Actors Game and Countermeasures in the Evolution Process of Internet Public Opinion

Purpose/Significance] In order to explore the dynamic mechanism to promote the evolution of Internet public opinion,this paper uses evolutionary game tools to clarify the internal relationship between the participants and the development of public opinion.Method/Process] Firstly,the evolutionary game model of the incubation period,development period,outbreak period and recession period of Internet public opinion were constructed.By solving the game equilibrium and Jacobian matrix,the evolution path and associated conditions of Internet public opinion were analyzed,and the internal mechanism of the development and evolution of Internet public opinion was discussed based on the interest dependence between the players of the game.On this basis,on the MATLAB platform to "problem cable event" of Xi'an Metro Line 3 was simulated,and the effect of psychological satisfaction on game equilibrium was mainly tested.Results/Conclusion] The key factors influencing the future trend of Internet public opinion in different development periods were also different;the main parties involved in the game jointly decided the direction of the evolution of Internet public opinion;the actions of government departments had a significant impact on the Internet public opinion;the number of psychological satisfaction factors was crucial to the decision-making of Internet users,and even could change the development trend of public opinion events.