中国钢铁资源与生产流程结构的长期预测

钢铁是社会经济发展的重要基础材料，在钢铁生产过程中，“电炉短流程”比“高炉长流程”的能耗、排放与资源消耗都要低。作为“短流程”的重要原料，废钢是钢铁流程演变的重要驱动力。本文在1960-2009年钢铁相关数据的基础上，建立了以ARIMA- Logistic组合模型和动态物质流分析为主的系统研究框架展开研究。结果表明：ARIMA- Logistic组合模型比单一Logistic模型能更准确地预测中国钢铁积蓄量的增长；从2010年开始，折旧废钢量会快速上升而钢铁需求量相对保持平稳；“短流程”将会逐渐替代目前主流的“长流程”，并在2043年之后成为主流程。这将有效减少钢铁工业对铁矿石的依赖，同时，社会废钢回收变得十分重要。为此，政府应出台相关政策，指导钢铁生产企业通过合理调整生产结构来应对钢铁流程结构的演变，同时要引导社会建立废钢处理、拆解、利用的产业链。

Long-Term Prediction for Chinese Steel Resource and Steel Production Pathway Transformation Based on an ARIMA-Logistic Model and Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Steel is an important basic material for social and economic development. The EAF production route has advantages over the BF-BOF route when it comes to energy and resource savings and emission reductions. As the main raw material for the EAF route,scrap is the driving force for steel production pathway transformation. In order to predict the development of the steel resource and steel production pathway transformation scientifically,we created a framework using a combined ARIMA-Logistic model with dynamic MFA model using steel production data from 1960 to 2009. We found that accurate prediction results on the growth of Chinese in-use of steel stock can be obtained using the ARIMA-Logistic model. The amount of end-of-life scrap will rise rapidly while steel consumption remains stable from 2010 to 2050. For the BF-BOF route,the main steel production pathway will be replaced gradually by the EAF route,which will become the main steel production pathway from 2043. This trend will help the steel industry reduce its dependence on iron ore,meanwhile,scrap recycling will become an important issue. Pathway transformation will be a key bonus for conserving energy and reducing emissions in the steel sector. In order to cope with the steel production pathway transformation trend,a comprehensive database of scrap should be built. The establishment of a national scrap strategy is an urgent task in order to eliminate the effect of the fluctuations in scrap prices to other downstream industries. The government should make relevant policies which guide steel producers to adjust production structure. At the same time,the establishment of a scrap industrial chain including scrap recycling, processing,dismantling and utilization is urgently required.