基于无偏灰色模型的水环境预测研究

伴随工业化、城市化进程,我国的水环境经历了四个不同的阶段。当前的水环境状况堪忧,需要对水环境进行强烈的关注,并对水环境的将来进行科学的预测,目前对水环境的关注主要集中于污染的治理与未来趋势以及区域河流的水质预测,对全国整体的水环境现状关注较少,本文根据中国历年环境保护基本概况统计中的指标,选取2000～2006年的中国水环境基本状况为原始数据,采用灰色预测方法对未来的整体水环境状况进行预测,并针对拟合度对传统GM1,1]模型和无偏GM1,1]进行比较,最后运用精度更高的无偏GM1,1]模型预测2007～2012年中国水环境状况。

Study on Water Environment Forecast Based on Unbiased Grey Model

Accompanied by industrialization and urbanization,China's water environment has gone through four different stages.The current water environment situation is serious.It needs a wide range of concerns about water environment,and scientific forecasts the water environment in China.At present,the attention of water environment focused on pollution control and the water quality of rivers in the region.There were not many papers discuss the nation's water environment as a whole.The article in accordance with bas...