河北省能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的关系

经济发展离不开能源消费,而能源消费引起了大量的碳排放,能源消费、碳排放与经济增长之间的关系研究对实施节能减排、发展低碳经济具有至关重要的意义。本文基于统计年鉴数据,测算了河北省1980年-2009年能源消费引起的碳排放总量,并分能源类别测算了煤炭、石油、天然气三种一次能源的碳排放量,在此基础上做了其变化轨迹分析及与京津...

Relationships between Energy Comsumption-Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Hebei Province

Economic development is highly related to energy consumption and energy consumption results in much carbon emissions. Examining relationships among energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth is important to implement policies regarding energy saving, emissions reduction, and low carbon economy. The international community has been progressively promoting carbon emissions reduction and making efforts to form new macro background. As a developing country, China is keeping rapid economic growth. Meanwhile, it is making substantial efforts to achieve carbon emissions reduction goals. China has entered a fast industrialization and urbanization development stage at which the energy demand intensity is high. Coordinated development among energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth is necessary for harmonious society construction. Based on statistical data, the authors estimated the amount of energy-related carbon emissions and carbon emissions from different types of primary energy, including coal, oil, and natural gas in Hebei Province from 1980 to 2009. Then changes track for carbon emissions and comparative analysis were performed. Results show that the total carbon emissions and carbon emissions caused by coal, oil, and natural gas were increasing in Hebei Province from 1980 to 2009. Carbon emissions came mainly from coal consumption. Compared to Beijing and Tianjin, carbon emissions in Hebei showed a rapid increasing trend since 2000. The consistent relationship and decoupling relationship were subsequently examined among energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth. The consistent relationships are as follows. First, change trends in energy consumption and carbon emissions were similar. Second, changes in energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity were similar. Decoupling relationships provided a quantitative expression based on the decoupling theory and decoupling elasticity index. During the period 1980-2009, the decoupling elasticity index between carbon emissions and economic growth was generally in accord with the decoupling elasticity index between energy consumption and economic growth in the same year. Weak decoupling was found in most years. The decoupling state is influenced by macroeconomic situations, policy regulation, economic development patterns, technological progress, industrial structure, energy structure and so on. The weak decoupling state would continue in the future. Results of this study would be helpful in formulating reasonable strategies and policies for carbon emissions reduction and energy development in Hebei Province.