制度质量、技术创新的挤出效应与资源诅咒—基于我国省际面板数据的实证分析

利用30个省际面板数据验证存在"资源诅咒"的同时,从制度质量和技术创新挤出效应的角度对其产生机理进行了基于门槛模型的实证检验,并对门槛变量的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:1)自然资源和经济发展之间显著的存在基于制度质量和技术投入水平的单门槛效应,制度质量和技术投入水平的提高可以有效地改善资源依赖对经济增长的负面影响;2)资源依赖度是产生诅咒的关键,丰裕的资源虽然和经济增长表现出正相关的关系,但是其对制度质量和技术投入水平的影响是负相关的,资源开发对技术创新具有挤出效应。另外实证结果还显示出产业结构的调整可以在一定程度上缓解经济增长对自然资源的依赖性,但是缺乏稳定性。

Institutional quality,extrusion effects of technology innovation and resource curse based on the empirical analysis of China's provincial panel data

This article has used 30 provincial panel data to verify the existence of "resource curse", and it has also made an empirical test to its generation mechanism based on the threshold model from the point of institutional quality and technical innovation, while at the same time it made an empirical analysis of the influence factors of threshold variable. The results showed that: 1) natural resources and economic development exist significantly a single threshold effect based on the institutional quality and technology investment level. The enhance in the institutional quality and technology investment level can effectively improve resources dependence's negative effects on economic growth; 2) resource dependency is the key reason to produce a curse, though resource abundance and economic growth have shown a positive correlation relationship, but their impact on the institutional quality and technology investment level is negative correlated, while resource development has extrusion effects on the technological innovation. The empirical results also show that the adjustment of industrial structure can alleviate economic growth dependence on natural resources to some extent, but lacks stability.