绿色金融、环境技术进步偏向与产业结构清洁化

   本文将绿色金融纳入技术进步偏向理论框架，考察绿色金融影响环境技术进步偏向及产业结构清洁化的内在机理，并通过参数校准与数值模拟进行定量分析。研究结果表明：环境技术进步偏向具有明显的路径依赖特征，绿色金融通过融资规模与融资成本手段影响两类研发厂商的相对利润、研发行为选择及环境技术进步偏向，进而通过直接生产率效应、间接价格效应与市场规模效应影响产业结构清洁化。只有当清洁研发部门融资规模占比或享受利率补贴超过一定临界值时，绿色金融才能成功诱导清洁型技术进步的发生，促进产业结构清洁化；而当清洁研发部门融资规模占比或享受利率补贴低于一定临界值时，绿色金融对清洁型产业产值的提升效应则被污染型技术进步效应所抵消，从而不利于产业结构清洁化。

Green finance,environment-biased technological progress and cleanliness of industrial structure

   The extensive pattern of economic growth, which is characterized with high investment level, high energy consumption, high pollution emissions, low growth quality, low economic efficiency and low economic output, has brought a incredible high-speed economic growth in the past many years in China. In the meanwhile, the huge resource consumptions and pollution emissions caused by extensive pattern of economic growth are approaching to the limit of environmental capacity gradually. Implementing green development strategy and accelerating industrial structure upgrade have become an important and urgent issue in the current period of economic development. As an important measure to implement the principle of "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets" and the practice of realizing green development goal, green financial development is directly related to the realization of clean industrial structure and sustainable development. Technology progress is an important channel of financial development impacts on industrial restructuring, and environmental technology progress is the key to resolving the contradiction between economic growth and environmental pollution. When the technological progress with high-energy and high-pollution and the technological progress with low-energy and low-pollution are at different speeds, environmental technological progress shows a certain degree of bias, and the clean technological progress which characterized by low energy consumption and low pollution has an important relationship with the cleanliness of industrial structure, and meanwhile, it is stimulated and constrained by the development of green finance. Thus, in the critical period of economic transformation in China, exploring the impact mechanism of green finance on environment-biased technological progress and cleanliness of industrial structure has important theoretical and practical significance for realizing the high quality and sustainable development of China′s economy.     Based on the research background, this article reviews the existing literature at home and abroad, and finds that there are still two shortcomings in the current literature: Firstly, the researches about the factors affecting environment-biased technological progress mainly focus on the aspect of environmental regulation, and the researches on the relationship between green finance and environment-biased technological progress are relatively scarce. Meanwhile, the theoretical mechanism of green finance affecting environment-biased technological progress is still unclear. Secondly, the existing researches on the relationship between green finance and industrial structure mainly focus on the relationship between green finance and macroeconomic growth or the effectiveness of green credit policies. The discussion about the mechanism of green finance affecting cleanliness of industrial structure is still insufficient.     Based on the theoretical framework of the bias of technological progress constructed by Acemoglu et al. (2012), this article expands the theoretical model which including both clean and pollution technology by incorporating green financial development factors, and then studies the inherent mechanism of green finance affecting environment-biased technological progress and cleanliness of industrial structure. Based on the theoretical analysis, this article conducts the quantitative analysis about green finance, environment-biased technological progress and cleanliness of industrial structure by using parameter calibration and numerical simulation method.      The results show that environment-biased technological progress is characterized by path-dependence. When the initial technological progress shows clean or pollution bias obviously, the subsequent technological progress will strengthen this feature, thus environment-biased technological progress will show clean or pollution bias continuously. Green finance can influence the relative profit and R&D behavior choices of clean and pollution R&D firms, and then influence environment-biased technological progress through financing scale and financing cost means, and further influence the cleanliness of industrial structure through direct productivity effect, indirect price effect and market size effect. Only when the proportion of financing scale or the interest rate subsidy of the clean R&D department is beyond a certain threshold, green financial development can induce the clean technology successfully, thereby promoting the cleanliness of industrial structure. When the proportion of financing scale or the interest rate subsidy of the clean R&D department is below a certain threshold, the effect of green financial development on the output value of the clean industries is offset by the effect of pollution-based technology progress, so that the output value of the clean industries continues to decline and it is not conducive to the cleanliness of industrial structure.     Based on the research conclusions, this article puts forward the following relevant policy recommendations. Firstly, the government should encourage more financial market players to participate in green financial development and increase the scale of green financial supply, and further reduce green financing costs for clean firms. For example, more green credit issued by commercial banks should be encouraged by providing series of targeted policies, such as reserve policy, refinancing policy for commercial banks. Incorporating the participation in green bonds underwriting into the classified evaluations of securities companies, and make it linked to the rating results directly. Secondly, increasing government support for clean technology innovation is necessary, and it will guide and motivate clean technology innovation activities through government-supported technology innovation policies and green financial policies. For example, establishing professional institutions of clean technology innovation by the government through direct funding or cooperation with universities and scientific research institutions. Supporting clean technology innovation through establishing the government green guidance fund, and driving more private capital to participate in clean technology innovation activities through the demonstration effect of government. Thirdly, the government should improve the green industry development policy and achieve coordinated development of green financial development and green industry. On the one hand, the government should give more supports to the clean industries with high added value through implementing several measurements. On the other hand, the government should limit the development of high-pollution and high-energy industries directly by implementing strict environmental protection policies, which will promote the transformation of the traditional economic growth pattern with high energy consumption and high pollution production and alleviate the path dependence of traditional industrial structure, and finally improve the cleanliness of industrial structure continuously.     The conclusions of this article reveal the intrinsic mechanism and mathematical logic of green finance affecting environment-biased technological progress and cleanliness of industrial structure, which will help to clarify the important role of green technology innovation in improving the cleanliness of industrial structure, and provide direction for the green transformation of industrial structure and green economic development in China. Meanwhile, it can also provide the government with more ideas and strategies on how to formulate targeted green financial policies, clean technology innovation support policies and green industry support policies, which will give full play to the complementary role of existing economic policies and green finance and promote clean technological progress together.