出口技术演进的减排特征：赶超、扭曲与资源利用效率

   过去的几十年，中国通过支持偏离自身比较优势产业的发展使本国出口技术复杂度得到了快速提升，但这种发展同时伴随着政府的市场干预和较低的资源利用效率。我们以政府干预为切入点，利用STIRPAT模型并结合GMM-System估计方法研究发现：在排除市场扭曲干扰时，出口技术“适应性”偏离比较优势的赶超有助于提高资源利用效率，从而降低碳排放强度；考虑市场扭曲时，出口技术赶超的减排效应发生重要改变，具体地，市场扭曲使得出口技术较低程度的赶超不利于经济发展水平落后和资源要素富集地区的减排，只有当这种赶超在较大距离上偏离比较优势时则会扭转消极影响，但目前并未实现；市场扭曲抑制了经济发展水平较高和资源匮乏地区的资源、劳动密集型行业出口技术赶超对资源利用效率的积极效应。

Emission reduction characteristics of export technology evolution: Catch-up,distortion and resource utilization efficiency

     In the past few decades, China has rapidly improved its export technology complexity by supporting the development of its own comparative advantage industries, but this development is accompanied by government market intervention and low resource utilization efficiency. The catch-up of export technology is a technological evolution that deviates from the traditional "comparative advantage" of a country and the overall "factor endowment" status of the country. If this "deviation" lacks appropriate human capital, market-based price mechanism, etc., it will lead to negative effects such as reduced efficiency in factor allocation, production distortions, and reduced energy efficiency. At the same time, this catch-up export development model will inevitably lead to the rapid accumulation of capital elements and economic growth and the widening of export products. This is also the fundamental driving force for many developing countries to implement export technology catch-up strategies. Some scholars also believe that such catch-up behaviors in developing countries such as China are a kind of "image surpassing", which is driven by a rich labor force and low value-added global value chain, and it is attracted by low-end processing trade and foreign direct investment. Qian Xuefeng using the micro-data at the level of Chinese enterprises pointed out that countries that implement export technology catch-ups often use the capital accumulated by their original comparative advantages to develop technological innovation and resource utilization efficiency beyond the comparative advantage. In the higher emerging industries, this behavior will enhance the domestic production efficiency of the lower technical content and the international market competitiveness of enterprises while improving the ability of producing high-quality new products in the country. In the past three decades, the phenomenon of the upgrading of export technology has been widespread in developing countries. This technological upgrading has brought about the diversification and complexity of new, higher quality products and export products for developing countries. The complication of export technology means increased exports of capital-intensive industries and more competitive exporters, and recent literature suggests that this change provides a sustainable advantage for economic growth in developing countries. In developing countries, there is a general deviation from the comparative advantage of export technology.      Will this deviation be beneficial to economic development in the long run or will it be a hindrance? Recent scholars have had a heated discussion on this issue. The government has played a key leading role in the formation of a catch-up external development model in a country. Should the country implement a catch-up development strategy? In terms of theoretical research, Lin Yifu emphasized in the discussion of new structural economics that a country′s development should conform to its comparative advantage, the country′s industrial policy should be in line with comparative advantage, and the strategy of deviating from comparative advantage will certainly hinder economic development.    To truly play the comparative advantage of the country, there must be a market and a government, and both are indispensable. If the industry supported by the government does not meet the comparative advantage determined by a country′s own factor endowment, then the development of the industry naturally has no cost competitive advantage, and there is no permanent viability in the open competitive market. When the country′s comparative advantage changes, the government should play the role of "causing the situation". Because technological innovation and upgrading, industrial structure optimization cannot be formed naturally by customer service market defects, the government must provide a sound institutional environment and industrial upgrading and technological innovation.   Contrary to Lin Yifu, Stiglitz points out the importance of learning in the discussion of a new engine of learning society and growth. He believes that the traditional theory of comparative advantage is concerned with the change in the ratio between capital and labor. It does not consider the key role of learning to acquire knowledge in economic growth. The latecomer countries should break through the trade benefits brought about by traditional comparative advantages. If distribution is unfair, it must rely on new comparative advantages such as knowledge, human capital and institutions to cultivate its own learning ability and pursue dynamic and long-term comparative advantages.    Taking government intervention as the entry point, we use the STIRPAT model combined with the GMM-System estimation method. The study found that when the market distortions are excluded, the "adaptation" of export technology deviates from the comparative advantage, which helps to improve the efficiency of resource utilization and thus the intensity of carbon emissions. When considering market distortions, the emission reduction effect of export technology catches up changes. Specifically, market distortions make the export technology′s lower catch-up is not conducive to the reduction of economic development level and the reduction of resource-rich areas. Only when this catch-up deviates from the comparative advantage over a large distance will reverse the negative impact. However, it has not been realized at present; market distortions have inhibited the positive effects of resource- intensive and labor-intensive industries′ export technologies that have a high level of economic development and resource-poor regions on resource utilization efficiency.     Further analysis of the export of high-tech industries shows that market distortions make the level of economic development low and the low-level export technology of natural resource-rich regions catch up with the characteristics of resource-biased evolution, and "extrude" capital and knowledge-biased high-tech industries. Export share reduces resource utilization efficiency. From the perspective of long-term interests, in order to promote the development of knowledge-intensive high-tech industries with high resource utilization efficiency, while the economic development is at a lower stage to implement the export technology catch-up strategy, the government should give the market certain guidance and adjustment, and correct the market defects. When the economic development enters a higher stage, the government should reduce market intervention and adopt a "moderate catch-up" strategy to improve resource utilization efficiency.