试论后冷战时期南海危机的预警与控制

南海问题自20世纪70年代凸现以来,便随着南海周边国家国内外政策、地区国际格局乃至全球国际体系格局的变化而呈现不同态势。基于各种因素的考量,在冷战结束后一个相当长时期内,南海问题将持续存在,并存在爆发危机的潜在可能性。而在此期间,中国需要一个和平稳定的周边环境。因此,南海危机管理尤其是危机的预警和控制应成为这一时期中国应对南海问题的一个重要方面。

Analysis on the Early Warning and Control of the Crisis in South China Sea after the Cold War

The South China sea issue has taken on different presence with the change of the domestic and foreign policies of the countries around the sea and the change of regional even global international situations.Based on the consideration of various factors,the issue will exist and there will be a potential crisis in a fairly long period after the Cold War.However,China needs a peaceful and stable surroundings during this period.So,the management,especially the early warning and control of the crisis should be an important consideration of China in dealing with the issue.