干旱区绿洲承载力研究的全新审视与展望

承载力概念经历了从资源承载力 -环境承载力 -生态承载力到绿洲承载力的演进过程 ,绿洲承载力是人类对干旱区日益严重的生态环境问题所做出的响应与变化的结果。文中以全新的视角对绿洲承载力理论与方法的研究成果进行了分析、总结与评价 ,指出绿洲承载力研究的日趋完善将为深入揭示绿洲本质 ,定量研究干旱区绿洲开辟有效途径。绿洲水资源承载力是绿洲承载力研究的核心。由水、土资源等单要素承载力向综合承载力方向转变是今后绿洲承载力研究的趋势。绿洲承载力方法研究将由静态分析走向动态预测 ,模式化、模型化日益完善。绿洲承载力研究面临新的机遇 ,在基础理论、研究对象、指标体系、研究手段等方面的研究将有新的突破。

OASIS CAPACITY IN ARID REGION: RECONSIDERATION AND PROSPECT

Concept of capacity, evolving from resources capacity, environment capacity and ecological capacity to oasis capacity, has gained increasing attention in recent literature. Within them, many studies are contributed to oasis capacity, which is one of human's responses to increasingly serious ecological environment problems in arid regions. Reviewed from a new perspective, theories and methodologies within oasis capacity literatures are summarized in this paper. It is argued that great progress will be achieved in qualitative and qualitative analyses of oasis research, with more intensive studies of oasis capacity. Furthermore, outlook for oasis capacity is presented. In term of content, changing focus from single factor capacity, such as water, or land resources, to comprehensive capacity will be the new trend; while in term of methodology, dynamic predictions in place of static ones will be the new trend in capacity researches.