从短期非均衡到长期均衡:我国消费结构升级与体育产业发展互动关系的计量

采用协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果关系等计量经济学方法，基于2006至2016年的时间序列数据，探寻我国消费结构升级与体育产业发展的互动关系。研究表明：（1）居民消费结构升级通过提升体育消费水平影响体育产业发展，体育产业通过政策引导和市场培育影响居民消费结构升级；（2）我国居民消费结构升级与体育产业发展之间存在线性相关关系（P<0.01）；（3）我国消费结构升级与体育产业发展之间存在协整关系，并具有体育产业增长1%，城镇消费结构升级0.0687%、农村消费结构升级0.1124%的互动关系；（4）我国消费结构升级与体育产业发展之间不存在短期均衡关系和双向的Granger因果关系；（5）我国消费结构升级与体育产业发展之间存在从短期非均衡向长期均衡转变的过程。基于此，提出相关建议。

From Short-term Non-equilibrium to Long-term Equilibrium: Econometric Study of Relationship between Upgrading of Consumption Structure and Development of Sports Industry in China

Adopting co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality and other methods, based on the time series data from 2006 to 2016, this paper explored the interaction between the upgrading of consumption structure and the development of sports industry. The research showed that:(1)the upgrading of the consumption structure of residents affected the development of sports industry by improving the sports consumption level, and the sports industry affected the upgrading of the consumption structure through policy guidance and market cultivation; (2)there was a linear correlation between the upgrading of consumption structure and the development of sports industry in China (P<0.01);(3)there was a cointegration relationship between the upgrading of the consumption structure and the development of sports industry in China, and the dynamic relationship between the growth of sports industry by 1%, the upgrading of the urban consumption structure, and the upgrading of the rural consumption structure by 0.1124%;(4)there was no short-term equilibrium relationship and two-way Granger causality between China's consumption structure upgrading and sports industry development;(5)there was a transition from the short-term imbalance to the long-term equilibrium between the upgrading of consumption structure and the development of sports industry in China. Based on the above, suggestions were put forward.