Determinants of expected vs. actual match outcome: an examination of the German Bundesliga |
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| Authors: | Tassilo von Hanau Brian Philip Soebbing |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Sport Economics and Sport Management, German Sport University Cologne, Cologne, Germany;2. School of Kinesiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA |
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| Abstract: | Within society, there are many publications regarding expectations of firm performance. These include analysis, industry insiders and ranking service. Within sports, bookmakers provide betting odds that reflect the expected outcome of matches and are determined by several factors. The purpose of this study is to analyse the determinants of expected match outcome (i.e. betting odds) and compare them to those of actual match outcome. Data from the 2010/2011 season of the German Bundesliga (soccer) are made available that are combined with betting odds for each match. Regression results show that several factors, such as difference in standing between team and opponent, difference in competitions played, difference in points earned over the last five matches, differences in standing last season and home advantage significantly influence expected match outcome. On the contrary, actual match outcome is only determined by the latter two factors. |
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