R&D投资、搜寻与多个国家风险投资周期性波动研究

文章对Barlevy的R&D投资波动模型进行了扩展,建立了R&D投资、风险投资与宏观经济总量(GDP)波动这三者之间的逻辑联系机制。论文认为,当宏观经济处于下行阶段时,企业进行R&D投资的机会成本较小,企业适于增加R&D投资。但是,企业此时进行投资的风险性也很大,有必要引入能承担更高风险的风险投资基金。风险投资的进入提高了企业的R&D投资资金和技术创新成功概率,并增进了宏观经济增长潜力。论文对12个国家在1995-2010年期间的R&D投资、风险投资和宏观经济周期性波动之间的关系进行了Granger因果检验,检验结果进一步证实了模型中的有关推论。论文最后建议,在我国经济增长较为缓慢阶段,我国应进一步开放资本市场,鼓励和引导更多社会资金进入创业风险投资领域。通过引入更多的风险投资,提高企业进行R&D投资和技术创新的动力,培育宏观经济在未来各个时期增长的潜力。

R&D investment,searching and the research of venture capital investments cyclicality of multi-countries

This article extends Barlevy's R&D investment volatility model,and constructs a logic linkage mechanism of R&D investment,venture capital investment and macroeconomic aggregates(GDP) fluctuations.The paper argues that when macroeconomic aggregates are in the downstream stage,the opportunity cost of R&D investments which enterprise carried out is small;enterprise should increase R&D investments.However,the investment risk is also high;enterprises should introduce a venture capital fund that can bear a higher risk.Venture capital investments increase R&D investment funds and improve the success probability of technological innovation,and enhance macroeconomic growth potential.We analyses the Granger causality relationship of R&D investments,venture capital investments and macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations of 12 countries in the 1995-2010 period.The test results further confirm the model inference.Finally,we suggested that when China's economic growth is in the relatively slow stage,China should further open up the capital market,encourage and guide more social capital into the field of venture capital investment.Through the introduction of more venture capital,we can improve the incentives of the R&D investment and technological innovation,and foster macroeconomic growth potential at various periods in the future.