PLURALISTIC IGNORANCE AND THE CLIMATE OF OPINION IN A REAL-TIME DISASTER PREDICTION |
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| Authors: | Major Ann Marie |
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| Institution: | Ann Marie Major is an Assistant Professor in the College of Communications and a Research Associate in the Australia New Zealand Studies Center at the Pennsylvania State University. Her research interests include public opinion, media sociology, and disaster and environmental studies. |
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| Abstract: | This study employed a four-fold typology of opinion groups depictingthe relationships between minority–majority status andaccurate–inaccurate perception of the climate of opinionabout the 1990 prediction of a destructive earthquake for themid-United States New Madrid Seismic Zone. Data were collectedfrom 629 residents of the area where the earthquake was predictedto occur. Two frameworks were employed to define the climateof opinion to take into account two key variables that influencepublic response to earthquake predictions: the predication'sbelievability and its importance. Accurate perceptions of theclimate of opinion were differntiated from inaccurate perceptionsbased on more frequent media use and the confidence respondentsfelt about protecting themselves from potential earthquake damages.Inaccurate perceptions of the climate of opinion are differentiatednot by more extensive media use and discussions, but by thecrediability placed on the information from the news media anddiscussions, as well as the perceived influence of these informationsources. |
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