能源价格不确定性对中国制造业企业投资影响的实证研究

考察能源价格不确定性对微观主体经济活动的影响对于深入探讨能源价格波动对实体经济的作用机理具有重要意义。本文基于2003年1季度-2014年1季度中国制造业上市公司数据,利用面板数据模型的IV-GMM方法,从销售收入增长率和资本存量误差修正项两个方面考察了能源价格不确定性对企业投资的影响。研究结果表明：①能源价格不确定性通过减弱投资对销售收入增长率的正向反应来降低企业投资,与实物期权理论相符;②通过比较发现,能源价格不确定性对高能耗行业销售收入增长率与企业投资之间关系的负向影响要大于低能耗行业;③计算企业投资对销售收入增长率的弹性发现,能源价格不确定性的出现使得高能耗行业企业投资对销售收入增长率的弹性下降幅度大于低能耗行业;④能源价格不确定性还可以通过减慢企业资本存量向长期理想水平调整的速度来降低企业投资,且相对于低能耗行业而言,高能耗行业企业投资调整速度下降较大。

The impact of energy price uncertainty on the corporate investment of manufacturing in China

Examining the impact of energy price uncertainty on economic activities of the microcosmic main body has an important significance for deeply discussing the action mechanism of fluctuations in energy prices on the real economy. Based on data from listed companies in China' s manufacturing sector from the first quarter of 2003 to the first quarter of 2014,using the IV-GMM method of panel data model we analyzed the impact of energy price uncertainty on corporate investment from the perspectives of sales growth and error correction term of capital stock. The results show that through weakening the positive effect of sales growth on corporate investment,the energy price uncertainty can reduce corporate investment,consistent with the real option theory. By comparison,I found that the negative effect of energy price uncertainty on the relationship between sales growth and corporate investment in high-energy industries is greater than that of low-energy industries. By further calculating changes in the elasticity of corporate investment with respect to sales growth,I found that the appearance of energy price uncertainty made the elasticity of corporate investment with respect to sales growth in the high-energy industries declined more than that of the low-energy industries. Through slowing the adjustment speed of the capital stock to the long-term desired level,the energy price uncertainty can reduce corporate investment,and compared with low-energy industries,the corporate investment adjustment speed of the high-energy industries has a higher rate of decline.