中国生态文明综合评价及环境、经济与社会协调发展研究

以生态文明理论为核心,以系统间耦合协调发展为导向,运用层次分析法和主成分分析法,研究建立了环境保护、经济发展与社会进步三大子系统,12个要素,64个指标因子的生态文明综合评价体系,并以此为依据进行系统间协调发展度的研究,从全国和省域两个尺度分析中国生态文明建设和协调发展的时空演化规律。运用1990-2010年全国尺度的时序数据进行分析,表明21年间中国生态文明建设水平持续提高,环境与经济、社会之间的协调发展能力不断加强。以中国省域为对象,定量研究其生态文明建设水平和协调发展度的空间分布规律,评价结果显示各省份存在着显著的区域差异,协调发展度基本呈现东部地区高于中西部地区的格局,但生态文明指数的空间分布状况并不完全符合东高西低的特征,并依据评价结果将中国31个省份划分为5个不同的发展类型,提出了有针对性的政策建议。

Ecological civilization evaluation and coordinated development between environment, economy and society

Based on the theory of ecological civilization and coordinated development degree,we established an ecological civilization evaluation system. Using AHP theory and principal component analysis,this ecological civilization evaluation system consists of 12 elements and 64 indexes,representing the levels of environment,economy and society. According to this ecological civilization evaluation system,we used country and provincial scale data to quantitatively analyze spatial and temporal variation in ecological civilization and coordinated development degree at these two spatial scales. The evaluated results indicate that this ecological civilization evaluation system is scientific and practical and has transverse and longitudinal comparability. At a country scale,from 1990-2012 the level of ecological civilization construction constantly improved,and the ability of coordinated development between environment,economy and society was strengthened. The results show that each five-year plan stage has significant differences in variation trend and characteristics at the country scale. At the province scale,the spatial evaluation results indicate that the ecological civilization construction level and coordinated development degree show significant regional differences. The coordinated development degree of the eastern region is higher than central and western regions in China,but the ecological civilization index is not fully consistent with this space distribution characteristic. Based on evaluation results at the province scale,the 31 provinces are divided into five different types of development and we put forward well-targeted suggestions of coordinated development for different regions in accordance with the type division method.