因果图和层次分析法在体育课程改革风险中的应用

通过引入因果图法和层次分析法,将导致体育课程改革风险的原因用因果图法进行分析和表示,并根据一定的内在机理将因果图转换成AHP的层次结构模型,利用AHP严格的数学逻辑定量计算方法.求得各风险因素的权值,得出导致体育课程改革风险发生的重要程度,从而确定影响体育课程改革风险的关键原因,进而作为体育课程改革风险规避的重点.以新一轮的基础教育体育课程改革为例,得出课程管理因素和课程目标因素是影响体育课程改革的主导因素的结论.运用该法得出的结果符合实际,对体育课程改革风险规避有借鉴意义.

Appl ication of cause2effect diagram and AHP in P. E. curricular reform risk

Cause-effect diagram and AHP were int roduced. Firstly ,all the causes that led to accident s were
expressed by cause2effect diagram. According to certain int rinsic mechanism , the diagram was t rans ferred
into layer2st ructured model of AHP ,and the weight of each cause could be obtained by AHP algorithm.
Then the significance of each cause was determined and the key causes could be selected as the most impor2
tant aspect s of P. E. curricular reform risk. It was concluded that curricular management factors and objec2
tive factors were the key factors influencing the reform. This method proved to be practical ,feasible.