人力资本投资视角的远程教育辍学问题分析

人力资本积累是经济持续增长的重要源泉，教育投资是提高人力资本流量和存量的最主要渠道。我国现代远程教育因其开放式、灵活性、大容量、网络化等特征，为转变人口结构中的劳动生产率、提高人力资本质量、增加技能型劳动数量、促进经济持续增长提供不同于传统“人口红利”的“教育红利”。但是随着远程教育的发展，远程教育出现了学员高辍学率现象。高辍学率现象不仅会造成辍学学员人力资本投资成本的损耗，而且会造成远程教育教学资源的浪费，不利于人力资本的形成和积累。因此，有必要从人力资本投资视角，结合远程学习者自身学习经验，探究高辍学率学期分布的成本收益、个体投资效用最大化和远程教育投资环境等问题。基于个体人力资本投资决策模型对山东广播电视大学学员进行的分析显示：辍学会对学习者个体和远程教育机构的投入成本造成不同层面、不同程度的损失和浪费；辍学者不能实现投资效用的最大化；远程教育机构投资环境会对个体决策产生重要影响。因此，远程教育机构应构建基于云平台的个体保障循环系统和机构保障循环系统，通过优化人力资本投资环境来保障更多学习者完成学业，实现个体和远程教育机构投资的收益。

An Analysis of Distance Education Dropout from the Perspective of Human Capital Investment

The human capital accumulation is an important source of keeping economy growth and the education investment is a key channel of increasing the human capital flow and stock. In order to transform the labor productivity in demographics, improve the quality of human capital, increase the quantity of skilled labor and foster the sustainable economic growth, the modern distance education in China, taking its open, flexible, high-capacity and networking advantages, is offering the＆quot;education dividend＆quot;different from the traditional ＆quot;demographic dividend＆quot;. However, the problem of high dropout rate appears with the development of distance education. It results not only in the loss of the human-capital-investment cost from the dropouts but also in the waste of the teaching resources in distance education, which is disadvantageous to the formation and accumulation of human capital. Therefore, it is vital, from the perspective of human capital investment and combined with the distant learners＆#39; learning experience, to investigate and analyze the cost and benefit of the term distribution of high dropout rate, the utility maximization of individual investment and the influence of distance-education investment environment. The analysis of the distant learners in Shandong Radio and Television University, based on the decision theory model of individual human capital investment, shows that the dropout of distance education leads to the loss and waste of the input cost by individual learners and distance education institutions at different levels and to different degrees, that the dropouts fail to maximize the investment utility and that the investment environment offered by distance education institutions has great effects on the individual decisions. Hence, distance education institutions should build up individual and institution circulation security systems on the basis of the cloud platform and assure more distant learners of completing their studies by optimizing the human capital investment environment, thus obtaining investment gains for both the individuals and distance education institutions.