我国农村居民消费行为的实证研究

依据1978-2009年间农村居民消费与收入的样本数据,根据西方消费理论,建立计量经济模型,运用协整研究方法,对农民的消费行为进行了实证研究。研究表明,农民消费与收入之间存在长期均衡关系;农民短期消费易受冲击,表现出一定的非理性;农民的长、短期消费的乘数都较小,从而客观上形成农民消费对经济增长的贡献率较低的现实;关键是农民收入增长偏低。对此提出了让农民们也能体面地生活的政策建议。

Empirical analysis on the rural consumer behavior in China

According to the western consumption theory,based on the rural residents＇ consumption and income sample data from 1978 to 2009,established econometric model,used cointegration analysis method,this article makes an empirical research on the farmers＇ consumer behavior.It is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the farmers＇ consumption and income,and the short-term consumption of farmers is susceptible to be impacted and the farmers＇ short-term consumption shows a little irrational.It is found that the farmers＇ long-term consumption multiplier and short-term consumption multiplier is still small,thus in words of the farmer＇s consumption effect,there is objectively a low contribution on the economic growth..AS far as the amplitude,the growth of degree,and the increase speed of development is concerned,the net income of farmers cannot be comparable with the per capita GDP.The article proposes the policy recommendations that the farmers can also live honorably.