收入增长与老龄化对城镇居民食物消费水足迹的影响

本文通过食物消费在收入增长、老龄化和水足迹之间建立了有机联系,从收入增长与人口老龄化角度考察了中国居民食物消费水足迹现状,并对其未来趋势进行预测,回答了社会经济因素的变化是如何影响食物消费水资源需求的问题。基于10个城市2023个城市居民家庭7天记账式调研数据的研究结果表明,居民食物消费水足迹随收入上升呈现递减式上升的发展趋势,这意味着,随着城镇居民收入的持续增长,由食物消费所带来的水资源供需压力将会进一步加大,在2027年左右逐渐缓解并达到水资源需求的最高点。与收入增长作用相反,中国人口老龄化对食物消费水足迹有显著负影响,因此,认识并利用这一自然趋势,将十分有助于更加科学动态地应对水资源压力。此外,研究结果还表明,被忽视的居民在外饮食消费在城市居民食物消费水足迹估计中占有显著地位,忽略在外消费量及其与在家食物消费结构上的差异都会造成对食物消费水需求的显著低估。

Impact of income growth and aging on the water footprintof food consumption in urban China

Scientifically using the concept of water footprint will help people understand the complex relationship between human activities and natural resources. Water footprint affects the evaluation and management of water resources. Here, we attempt to establish a relationship between socioeconomic factors and water footprint through food consumption. We point out how socioeconomic factors affect the water demand of food consumption. Based on a week-long diary survey of 2, 023 households from 10 cities in China, we aimed to empirically analyze water footprints behind food consumption and identify influencing factors, with specific attention to the impact of income growth and population aging. We forecast future trends in the water footprint of food consumption in urban China based on different circumstances for income growth and population aging. The results show that the water footprint behind food consumption increases with a decreasing rate as income rises, suggesting a continually growing pressure on water supply until the water footprint reaches a turning point around the year 2027. In contrast to the income effect, China's aging population has a significant negative effect on the water footprint of food consumption. Understanding this nature and making full use of population aging effects will help to find more scientific and dynamic methods to coordinate pressures on water resource. Our results show that food consumed away from home plays a significant role in understanding the water footprint of food consumption, suggesting a potential downward bias without considering this part.