甘肃省河西地区自然-社会系统脆弱性评价

脆弱性是全球环境变化和区域可持续发展研究中的重点内容与热点问题。本文基于脆弱性评价模型、因子贡献度模型和熵权法,通过构建自然-社会系统脆弱性评价体系,定量分析了甘肃省河西地区各乡镇的自然-社会系统的暴露度、敏感性、适应能力和脆弱性,以及各指标和各要素层对自然-社会系统脆弱性的贡献度。研究结果表明：①甘肃省河西地区中度、较高度和高度脆弱性区域占河西地区总面积的70.85%,脆弱程度高;②河西地区南部高海拔山区的脆弱性明显高于北部低海拔地区;③从三大内陆河流域来看,疏勒河流域脆弱性的程度最高,黑河流域次之,石羊河流域最低;④河西地区以自然适应能力、社会经济敏感性、自然敏感性和自然暴露度为主要贡献因子的地区分别占河西面积的91.77%、87.23%、67.85%和56.53%,降低河西地区自然适应能力、社会经济敏感性、自然敏感性和自然暴露度是降低脆弱性的关键所在。

Assessment of vulnerability in natural-social system in Hexi,Gansu

Vulnerability is important content and a hot issue in the study of global environmental change and regional sustainable development. Based on vulnerability assessment modeling, contribution of factors modeling and the entropy-right method, we constructed an evaluation system for vulnerability in a natural-social system. Exposure, sensibility, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of each village and town in Hexi area were analyzed. The contribution of each index and feature factors were also analyzed. We found that medium, higher and high vulnerability areas occupied 70.85% of the whole area in Hexi. The vulnerability degree was high and the vulnerability of southern mountain areas was higher than northern areas at lower altitudes. From the perspective of three continental river basins, the highest level of vulnerability appeared in Shule River Basin, and the vulnerability of the Black River Basin took second place, and that of the Shiyang River Basin was the lowest. Regions considering the adaptive capacity degree of natural system, sensibility degree of the social-economic system, sensibility degree of natural system and exposure degree of natural system as the main contribution factor occupied 91.77%, 87.23%, 67.85% and 56.53% of the whole area in Hexi, so reduced the adaptive capacity degree of the natural system, the sensibility degree of the natural system, the sensibility degree of the social-economic system and the exposure degree of the natural system is the key to reducing vulnerability in Hexi. Only by doing this can we improve our living environment.