河北省耕地资源动态变化及驱动力分析

利用河北省1985-2008年耕地面积数据及相关社会经济资料,分析了区域内耕地的时空变化趋势,并用主成分分析法探讨了耕地变化的主要驱动力.结果表明:河北省耕地资源时空变化特性显著,耕地总量及人均量均呈逐年减少趋势；经济发展、人口和农业科技进步是耕地数量变化的三类主要驱动因素；从保护耕地资源的角度,应关注经济发展对耕地的占用问题,降低经济发展的耕地消耗强度.

Study on Dynamic Changes and Driving Forces of Arable Land Resources in Hebei Province

First,the spatial and temporal trends of arable land were analyzed based on arable land and relevant socio-economic data in Hebei Province from 1985 to 2008.Then,the main driving forces were investigated by principal component analysis.The results are as follows,(1) Temporal and spatial characteristics of the arable land resources were significant and total arable land and its per capita volume has continued to decrease;(2) Economic development,population and agricultural scientific and technological progress are the three main driving factors of the amount of cultivated land change;From the perspective of the protection of arable land resources,we should pay more attention to loss of arable land owing to economic development,and reduce the consumption intensity of the economic development of arable land.