区域层面电子废弃物远景资源化潜力预测——以北京为例

电子废弃物回收利用具有区域性和长期性双重特征,区域层面电子废弃物远景资源化潜力分析可为国家循环产业布局及企业产能调整提供数据支撑。本文构建了区域层面电子废弃物远景资源化潜力预测模型（LRP模型）,并引入Weibull分布模型对调研获得的产品寿命分布数据进行修正,引入Logistic分布模型对LRP模型的时间维度进行拓展。以北京市五大家电为例,整合家庭及办公场所两个电子废弃物重要产生源,依托500户居民的网络调研数据,预测了至2050年北京市电子废弃物的资源化潜力,并对其影响因素及影响效果进行了系统的探讨。结果表明：①北京市电子产品报废量在2020年之前呈快速增长的趋势,年均增长率超10%,而之后年份变动幅度较小,总量均维持在1000万台以上。②电子废弃物资源潜力自2018年基本趋于稳定,年产生量超过26.5万t,其中金属含量较多,占资源总量的54%以上。③分析了人口增长趋势、寿命分布、逆向物流、边界设定4类情景对电子废弃物资源化潜力的影响效果,其中人口增长速度提升以及产品寿命缩短情景对电子废弃物总体的资源化潜力具有较大影响,分别会使2020—2050年间的蓄积资源化潜力提升41.87万t及133.11万t,边界设定情景则会大幅增加废旧电脑的资源化潜力,而逆向物流情景的影响则相对较小。建议加快运用数字化手段提升电子废弃物的溯源能力,加强电子产品全生命周期的统筹管理水平,促进高更新换代产品逆向物流及商业模式的配套衔接。

Forecasting prospective potential of the secondary resources in electronic waste at the regional level: Evidence from Beijing

Electronic waste recycling is characterized by long-lasting process at the regional level. Study on prospective potential of the secondary resources in electronic waste at the regional level is beneficial for governments to plan the recycling outlets and for enterprises to adjust their productivity. In this study, a long-term resource prediction (LRP) model was built to obtain the prospective potential of the secondary resources. The Weibull distribution model was introduced in the LPR model to correct the lifespan distribution of electronic products, and the Logistic distribution model was introduced to expand the time dimension of the LPR model. Subsequently, the typical electronic products in Beijing were investigated in a case study, and household and office electronic products were both considered. Five hundred random households were selected for an online survey in Beijing. The resource potential of electronic waste in Beijing was predicted from 2010 to 2050, and the influencing factors and their effects were discussed. The result shows that: (1) The average annual growth rate of the quantity of the electronic waste is over 10% before 2020. But after that year, low change rate will replace the previous trend, and the total amount of the electronic waste will maintain at more than 10 million units. (2) The resource potential of electronic waste will basically stabilize and the total amount of the resources will exceed 265000 metric tons from 2018. In particular, the metal content accounts for about 54% of the total resources. (3) The effects of population growth trend, life distribution, reverse logistics and boundary setting scenarios on the recycling potential of e-waste are analyzed. The scenarios of population growth rate and product life distribution have great impacts on the overall recycling potential of electronic waste, which will increase the accumulated recycling potential by 418700 metric tons and 1331100 metric tons respectively from 2020 to 2050, with boundary setting scenario will greatly increase the recycling potential of waste computers, while reverse logistics scenario has relatively small impact. We recommend to accelerate the use of digital means to improve the traceability of electronic wastes, strengthen the overall management level of the whole life cycle of electronic products, and match up the trend with reverse logistics and appropriate business models of fast upgrading products.