技术管理内生复杂性的来源与测度研究

在不确定性快速增长的情况下,应对技术管理内生复杂性是进行有效技术管理的重要任务。从复杂性的基本特征入手,在建立技术管理内生复杂性分析框架的基础上,对技术管理内生复杂性的来源进行了研究,构建了技术管理系统内生复杂性的测度模型并进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,技术管理内生复杂性来源于知识、参与者、工具和过程四个要素的复杂性;每个要素的复杂性来源于其自身的构成状况和关系状况;各要素复杂性概率的均等化分布会导致内生复杂性增大。实证研究还展示了技术管理系统内生复杂性的评价和管理过程,表明本研究能够为技术管理复杂性的分析与评价提供有效工具。

Study on origins and measurement of endogenous complexity of technology management

In the condition of rapid increase of uncertainty, it is of significance to deal with endogenous complexity of technology management in order to achieve effective management of technology. This paper firstly analyzes the basic characteristics of complexity, and constructs a framework of endogenous complexity of technology management. And then, the paper analyzes origins of endogenous complexity involved in technology management, constructs the measurement model of endogenous complexity and conducts an empirical study. The results indicate that: (1) endogenous complexity of technology management originates from the complexity of four elements including knowledge, people, tools and activities; (2) each element’s complexity originates from its construction and relations; and (3) regular distribution of complexity probabilities of elements can increase endogenous complexity degree. The empirical study also illustrates the assessment and management of endogenous complexity of technology management, which indicates that this research can provide effective tools for analyzing complexity of technology management.