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| 基于未确知模糊理论的供应链风险评估 | |
| 引用本文： | 肖美丹,李从东,张瑜耿.基于未确知模糊理论的供应链风险评估[J].软科学,2007,21(5):27-30. |
| 作者姓名： | 肖美丹 李从东 张瑜耿 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 天津大学,管理学院,天津,300072 2. 暨南大学,管理学院,广州,510632 3. 阳光100烟台银都置业有限公司,山东,烟台,264001 |
| 摘 要： | 将未确知理论与模糊评判法相结合,建立了基于未确知模糊理论的供应链风险评估模型,首先采用未确知理论求得风险发生的概率,然后用模糊数学求得风险发生的损失后果,最后通过风险因子的涵义综合求得系统风险。并通过实例对该模型和算法进行了验证分析,分析表明,建立的模型将主观判断与定量分析相结合,有效、全面、系统地评价了风险的大小。 |
| 关 键 词： | 供应链风险 风险评估 未确知理论 模糊数学 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8409（2007）05-0027-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-26 |
Assessment of Supply Chain Risk Based on Uncertainty Theory and Fuzzy Method |
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| XIAO Mei-dan,LI Cong-dong,ZHANG Yu-geng.Assessment of Supply Chain Risk Based on Uncertainty Theory and Fuzzy Method[J].Soft Science,2007,21(5):27-30. | |
| Authors: | XIAO Mei-dan LI Cong-dong ZHANG Yu-geng |
| Institution: | 1. School of Management, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072;2. School of Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632;3. Sunshine 100, Yantai Yindou Real Estate Co,LTD, Yantai 264001 |
| Abstract: | Combining the uncertainty theory with fuzzy method, this paper constructs the evaluation model of supply chain risk based on uncertainty theory and fuzzy method. This risk possibility and risk loss are given by using the uncertainty and fuzzy method respectively at first, and then the whole risk of supply chain is given according to the mean of risk. And the application of the comprehensive evaluation model is given, which combines the quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis and can evaluate the risk effectively. |
| Keywords: | supply chain risk risk assessment uncertainty theory fuzzy method |
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