宁夏城镇居民消费和收入变迁关系的动态分析

采用宁夏1978—2012年的数据,运用协整理论和状态空间模型,对宁夏城镇居民的消费和收入之间关系及其变迁过程进行实证研究,结果表明：改革开放以来,宁夏城镇居民消费与收入之间存在以1995年为界限的两段式均衡关系。状态空间模型刻画的时变边际消费倾向显示：始于1991年的边际消费倾向震荡式持续降低是1995年后消费与收入均衡关系发生变迁的原因。实证结论启示,要解决宁夏城镇居民消费不足的问题,不仅需要制定短期政策,更需要建立长效机制。

Dynamic Analysis of the Change of Income-Consumption Relationship of Urban Residents in Ningxia

Based on the statistics from 1978 to 2011,and using the cointegration theory and State Space Model,this paper studies the relationship and the changing process between the income and the consumption of urban residents in Ningxia province. The results show that since China＇s reform and opening up,the equilibrium relationship between consumption and income of urban residents in Ningxia has been in two stages divided by 1995. The time- varying marginal propensity to consume depicted by Srate Spaee Model shows： the consistent fluctuating reduce of marginal propensity to consume in 1991 accounts for the change of the balance between income and consumption with 1995 as the boundary. The work of this paper concludes that not only short time policies,but also the long- term mechanism is necessary to solve the insufficient consumption of Ningxia urban residents.