近12a湖北省耕地数量变化及其驱动力研究

耕地数量变化对于粮食安全和区域承载力具有重大影响.以湖北省17个市（州）2000-2011年间的耕地和社会经济数据为基础,通过GIS技术和主成分分析法,研究了湖北省近12a的耕地数量变化、空间分异和驱动力.研究结果表明：湖北省的耕地数量在2000-2003年期间呈递减态势,2004年后耕地数量逐年缓慢增长,全省范围内耕地数量变化表现出西部减少、东部增多的空间分异;人口、经济科技进步和政策导向是全省耕地数量变化的主要驱动力.研究旨在为湖北省耕地保护和协调区域人地关系提供相关参考.

Research on the Change of Cultivated Land Area and its Driving Forces in Recent 12 Years in Hubei Province

It is significant to study the change of cultivated land quantity in both food security and regional carrying capacity （RCC） . Based on the data of farmland area and some other social economic factors in 17cities of Hubei province from 2000 to 2011, the change of farmland quantity and its space difference and driving force of Hubei province nearly 12a are analyzed by applying the methods of GIS and principal component analysis （PCA） . The research results show that the farmland in Hubei province during 2000 - 2003 was decreased, but slowly rising year by year after 2004, spatial difference in the province of the farmland quantity change characterized by increased in the east, opposite in the west. Economic progress of science and technology, policy guidance and population pressure is the main driving forces of the cultivated land quantity change in Hubei province. This study can be for farmland protection in Hubei and coordinate the relationship between population and land to provide relevant reference.