日本技术预见方法演进及设计机制研究——基于康德拉季耶夫长波时代特征的划分

目的/意义]作为世界上国家技术预见工作开展时间最长、成熟度最高的发达国家,“日本是如何连续50年不断改进和革新预见方法的”的研究,不仅极具典型性价值,而且能直接服务于当前战略性新兴技术的预见和规划编制工作。方法/过程]参照康德拉季耶夫的长波论,从75份日本技术预见总报告、调查过程设计报告和辅助性资料等文本中,全面透视了日本技术预见方法演进革新历程并提出了“三个时代”的阶段性划分。结果/结论]日本国家技术预见先后经历了“德尔菲法的持续改进”“预见分析法从单一走向多元”“人工智能化技术预见”三次跃迁,由此萃取了日本技术预见调查设计模型,并提出对中国相关工作的启示。

On the Evolution and Design Mechanism of Japan's Technology Foresight Method——Era Division Based on Kondratieff Wave

Purpose/Significance]Japan is a developed country with the longest development and the highest maturity of technology foresight practice in the world.A research on"how Japan pushes forward the evolution of the methods of technology foresight"not only has typical significance,but also provides the most valuable reference for the technology foresight and planning works for strategic emerging technologies in China.Method/Process]Referring to Kondratieff Wave theory and based on 75 report materials,including the general report of technology foresight,the design report of investigation process and supplementary materials,the evolution process of Japan's technology foresight method is analyzed comprehensively.Result/Conclusion]Japan's technology foresight activities are divided into three periods,which demonstrated the following characteristics respectively:the continuous improvement of the Delphi method,the change of the foresight analysis method from single to multiple,and the introduction of artificial intelligence in technology foresight.The investigation and design model of Japanese technology foresight are further extracted,and the enlightenment to China's related work is put forward.