中国入境旅游发展预测与开发对策研究

入境旅游的入境人数和外汇收入是衡量一个国家或地区旅游经济实力和开放程度的指标,也是研究一个国家或地区入境旅游发展态势的重要指数．利用1978年-2004年的中国入境旅游统计资料来分析我国入境旅游市场的现状特点,运用数理统计模型,包括一元线性回归、多元线性回归、指数曲线和对数曲线四种回归方程来预测未来我国入境旅游的发展趋势,运用波士顿矩阵进行市场竞争态分析,提出未来我国入境旅游的开发战略和对策．

A Study on the Prediction of Inbound Tourist Market and the Strategy of China

Inbound tourist arrivals and international tourism receipts are not only the two keys of the power of a country's tourism and the standard of tourism growth, but also the important indexes of a country or an area's state of the inbound tourism. In the essay, according to the tourism statistic of P. R. China during the period between 1978 and 2004, we can find the characteristic of inbound tourist market. And then we can use regression analysis to predict the tendency of China's inbound tourism in future. We make use of the matrix of Boston to carry on the market competition analysis, put forward the strategy of exploring inbound tourist market and counter-measures.