农业经济增长因素实证分析——以安徽省为例

以安徽省为例,运用协整理论、误差修正模型分析1978年至2010年的相关数据,得出农业物质费用、劳动力和土地的投入与农业总产值之间具有长期稳定的关系,这种长期均衡使得短期内农业总产值的非均衡状态逐渐向长期均衡状态趋近.通过格兰杰因果关系检验,发现在短期农业物质费用和劳动力投入对安徽农业经济增长没有促进作用,农作物种植面积的投入却具有明显促进作用.鉴于此,最后提出了如何更好地提高安徽农业经济发展的相应建议.

An Empirical Research on Agricultural Economic Growth Factors:Based on Anhui Province

This paper,taking Anhui Province as an example and by using co-integration test and the error correction model,has studied the 33-year data(from 1978 to 2010).The study shows that there exist the long-term stability relations between the agricultural material expense investment,the labor force investment,the land investment and the total agricultural output value.Their long-term stability relations cause non-equilibrium state of short-term total agricultural output gradually to approach the long-term equilibrium state.Through the Grainger causal relation examination,the study obtains that the short-term agriculture material investment and the labor force investment does not grow the promoter action to Anhui agricultural economy,but the cultivated area of crops has obvious promoter action to Anhui agricultural economy growth.Then the author puts forward the corresponding proposals on how to enhance Anhui agricultural economy development based on this study.