中国投资引致碳排放与经济增长的空间特征及脱钩测度

长期以来中国经济增长依赖投资,在低碳经济时代下,投资引致的碳排放和经济增长脱钩关系应受到关注。以往对此研究相对较少,且忽略了投资通过不同区域间产业联系所引发的间接脱钩。本文引入面积元并结合投入产出表以改进脱钩模型,研究了2007-2010年间全社会固定资产投资直接、间接引致的中国30个省区市碳排放和经济增长的空间特征及脱钩关系。结果显示：①大部分省份由投资引致的经济增长比碳排放略快,两者为弱脱钩关系;北京和上海实现强脱钩发展,内蒙古、宁夏等资源型省份多为扩张负脱钩;②投资直接引致农林牧渔业实现脱钩发展,建筑业和服务业的直接脱钩状态相对较差;工业投资引致不同区域各产业的间接负脱钩状态最多,服务业受其他行业投资间接影响多呈现负脱钩状态。低碳发展相关政策的制定应考虑地区间的经济联系和产业间的拉动作用,适当补偿承担高碳生产环节的地区,避免盲目发展可能转移大量碳排放的产业。

Spatial characteristics and decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth induced by Chinese investments

China’s economic growth depends m¬ainly on investments. The decoupling relationship of carbon emission and economic growth induced by investment is of concern in a low-carbon economy. While most research has focused on direct decoupling,we set up a spatial comparable index based on input-output model to analyze both direct and indirect decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth caused by fixed asset investment. We carry on an empirical analysis of Chinese 30 provincial spatial characters of carbon emission and economic growth directly and indirectly induced by fixed assets investment,and use the index to measure this decoupling relationship by provinces and by industries from 2007 to 2010. The results show that in most provinces,economic growth stimulated by investment is slightly faster than the carbon emission increase caused by investment,which implies a state of weak decoupling. Among 30 provinces,Shanghai’s and Beijing’s carbon emissions increased and economic growth induced by investment is in a decoupling relation,while Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang,Ningxia and Shaanxi are at the state of expanded negative decoupling. Regarding the results of direct decoupling state by sector,it is worse for the construction sector and the service sector. As for the sector’s results of indirect decoupling,investment in the industrial sector brings about negative decoupling in most other sectors,and the service sector tends to be negative decoupling indirectly caused by other sector’s investment. In the development of a low-carbon economy,a compensatory mechanism should be built to reward the region that suffers high-carbon production in the whole economy. Industries that trigger other high-carbon industries should be considered for investment.