中国股市估值合理性研究

上交所统计数据表明,截至2007年12月28日,中国A股市场加权平均市盈率已达59.238倍,这一数字并非市场市盈率的真实反映,由于加权平均市盈率计算公式中对非流通股的不合理定价以及静态市盈率本身的局限,导致了计算出的市盈率结果系统性偏高。如果再考虑到当前的市盈率并没有包含对上市公司成长性的估计,那么A股市场的估值仍然是合理的。

Study on the Rationality of the Valuation in the Chinese Stock Market

According to Shanghai Stock Exchange statistics,the weighted average P/E ratio of the Chinese stock market has reached 59.238 on December 28,2007.However,this figure is falsely computed.In the formula of P/E ratio adopted by Shanghai Stock Exchange,the non-tradable shares were wrongly priced,which resulted in a higher figure than the true one.Besides that,P/E ratio itself uses the history earning data rather than the expected one as parameter,which was the second factor that caused the result systematically high.If taking the fast growth prospects of listed companies into consideration,the price level of the Chinese stock market is still reasonable.