新兴大国企业技术赶超的时机选择与追赶绩效——基于战略性新兴产业的理论与实证分析

新兴大国正抢抓新一轮技术变革的机会窗口,着力推进企业的技术赶超;但这也诱使企业在战略性新兴产业赶超过程中出现"投资潮涌"现象。本文基于资源累积与进入时机的交互效应,探讨了新兴大国企业进入战略性新兴产业赶超的时机选择机制和绩效生成机制,进而通过数理建模和仿真分析比较了不同进入时机的追赶绩效,最后以我国高铁产业为例进行了剖析。研究表明:(1)企业内部存量资源和外部环境资源共同影响企业进入时机的选择,新兴大国企业应选择战略性新兴产业演化的混沌阶段后期或主导设计形成期进入;(2)鉴于单纯的进入时机并不能决定赶超绩效,因此企业进入战略性新兴产业后,还需选择适宜的赶超战略和路径,以谋取资源累积与进入时机的交互效应;(3)先动优势较强的新兴大国企业,应选择战略性新兴产业演化的混沌阶段后期实施赶超,并应实施以技术突破为主导的复合战略;而先动优势较弱的新兴大国企业,应选择战略性新兴产业演化的主导设计萌芽期实施赶超,并应实施以市场导向为主导的复合战略。

The technology catching-up opportunity and performance of emerging giants’ enterprises — Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis of strategic emerging industry

Emerging giants are to seize opportunity window of a new round of technological change to make efforts to promote the enterprises’ catch-up process. But it also induced enterprises' “investment tide ”phenomenon in the catch-up process of strategic emerging industries. Based on the interaction effect between resources accumulation and entry timing, we will discuss timing mechanism and performance formation mechanism that the emerging giants’ enterprises enter the strategic emerging industries to catch up. And we will build the revenue and cost functions of the evolution of strategic emerging industries, and then make a comparative analysis on performance at different entry timing through mathematical model and simulation. Finally, we make an example of China's high-speed rail industry to analyze it. Studies have shown: (1)Internal resources and external environment influence enterprises’ choice of entry timing together . Thus, emerging giants’ enterprises should enter in chaotic period or formation period of dominant design of the strategic emerging industries. (2)But simply entry timing can not determine the enterprises’ performance, which means the enterprise also need to select appropriate strategic direction and catch-up path after entering strategic emerging industries to seek interaction effect between resources accumulation and entry timing that supporting the enterprises’ catching-up process. (3) In view of this, emerging giants’ enterprises with strong first-mover advantage should implement catch-up in the later chaotic period of he evolution of strategic emerging industries, and they should implement a complex technological breakthrough -oriented strategy. Emerging giants’ enterprises with weak first-mover advantage should implement catch-up in the infancy formation period of dominant design, and they should implement a complex market-oriented strategy.