基于岭回归的我国农村居民消费实证研究

近年来,我国农村消费需求成为一个研究的热点问题。文章为了消除解释变量之间的多重共线性的影响,对农村居民人均消费支出与农村居民人均纯收入、人均储蓄存款、人均GDP和消费价格指数这四个影响因素进行岭回归分析。实证分析结果表明,四个影响因素均对农村居民消费需求有显著影响,对模型进一步分析得出,我国近年来消费快速上升背后最大推动力竟然是物价的持续上涨,而不是居民消费动力有很大提高,最后对实证结果给予合理的经济解释。

An Empirical Study of the Rural Residents＇ Consumption of China Based on the Ridge Regression Model

In recent years, the consumer demand in rural China has become a hot issue. In this paper, in order to eliminate the influence of the muhicollinearity between the explanatory variables, a model of per capita consumption of rural residents on four influential factors ---per capita net income of rural residents, rural residents per capita saving deposits, per capita GDP and consumption index are built by ttle ridge re- gression analysis. The empirical results show that four factors have a significant impact on the consumption needs of rural residents. And the further analysis shows that the continuing rise of the price in recent years, unexpectedly becomes the biggest driving force behind the rapid increase in consumption, rather than the improvement of the consumer power. Finally, the empirical results are given reasonable explanations.