长三角城市群旅游流潜力格局演变及其影响因素

旅游流潜力格局是影响城市群旅游空间竞合关系协调与一体化发展的根本基础。基于旅游供需系统视角,利用GIS和改进的旅游流潜力模型研究2000年、2010年两个时间点长三角城市群旅游流潜力格局的空间变化特征,利用离散指数和Zipf分维数研究旅游流潜力格局变化的等级秩序特征,并利用积矩相关与秩相关系数分析不同因素对旅游流潜力格局变化的影响差异。研究发现：①长三角城市群旅游流潜力格局整体呈现出以扩散为主的等级结构均衡化演变特征,上海、杭州的扩散特征显著,长三角中心区域的苏州、嘉兴、常州、无锡等城市的旅游流潜力集聚提升明显;②长三角城市群旅游流潜力分布具有非均衡、多层极核的结构特征,核心-边缘模式是解释长三角旅游流潜力格局的基本模式;③旅游流潜力格局的等级秩序存在幂律分布和分形特征,进一步证实说明旅游现象中可能普遍存在幂次法则和分形发育;④旅游业水平与旅游流潜力的等级相关性和影响程度最高,人口分布、时间距离的影响程度一般,但都呈现出不断增强趋势,影响因子体系之间的紧凑性和结构效率整体增强,说明长三角城市群旅游发展的整体服务效率和旅游流竞合格局趋于优化;⑤旅游流潜力与城市经济发展水平之间存在显著性相关并随时间变化呈现出一定程度的增强趋势,证实经济发展水平是影响城市旅游流潜力的重要变量,也相应说明了本文旅游流潜力模型具有有效性和实用性。

Evolution characteristics and factors affecting tourist flow potential in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations

Tourist flow potential is the fundamental basis for the spatial competition-cooperation and integration development of urban agglomerations. Based on the tourism demand and supply system we used GIS and an improved gravity model to study spatial structural change of tourist flow potential in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations for 2000 and 2010. We used the discrete index and Zipf fractal dimension to study specific degrees of change and grade differences in structure. We then used product-moment correlation and rank correlation coefficients to analyze the impact and differences on the change in main factors’ structure,such as level of tourism,population distribution and time accessibility. We found that the whole structure is an equalization of hierarchical structure characterized by diffusion：the diffused characteristic is obvious in Shanghai and Hangzhou,and the tourist flow potential of cities in the center of the Yangtze River Delta （e.g. Suzhou,Jiaxing,Changzhou and Wuxi）has improved. The distribution of tourist flow potential in the Yangtze River Delta is disequilibrium and multi-polar nuclei,and a core-edge mode is the basic model to explain the structure. The power-law distribution and fractal characteristics in the hierarchical order of the structure further strengthen that power law and fractal growth can be a common phenomenon in tourism. Level of tourism industry and ranked tourist flow potential were the most strongly correlated,and the impact of population distribution and time distance is general. The compactness and structural efficiency between impact factors systems are strengthening,illustrating that tourism service efficiency and competition structure in Yangtze River Delta metropolitan areas tend to optimize. The correlation between tourist flow potential and urban economic level is significant and increasing over time,indicating that economic level is an important factor impacting urban tourist flow potential.