长三角生物医药创新集群的演化动力——基于系统动力学的仿真分析

为进一步深入对生物医药创新集群演化动力机制的探讨，推进区域性生物医药产业创新集群发展，以长三角生物医药创新集群为对象，根据生物医药产业创新集群特征设计系统动力学模型，分析系统动力机制、演化路径和关键变量作为可持续发展决策的杠杆作用点，基于其2012—2021年有关面板数据，对关键要素推动集群创新发展的影响进行仿真模拟分析。结果发现：市场需求子系统为创新集群演化提供根本性动力，其中国内市场需求影响尤为显著；技术创新能力子系统是创新集群演化的内生动力，但研发投入持续高速增长可能不利于集群发展；政府支持子系统是推动创新集群演化的外生动力，且影响显著。据此，建议深挖市场需求，加强研发管理，产学研政密切合作，进一步优化对生物医药产业创新集群的财政投入结构，加速开拓国际市场。

Study on the Evolutionary Dynamics and Sustainable Development Strategies of Biomedical Innovation Clusters in Yangtze River Delta Region-Simulation analysis based on system dynamics

It designs a system dynamics model of biopharmaceutical innovation clusters in the Yangtze River Delta, uses the key variables in the system as leverage points for sustainable development decisions, and conducts simulation analysis of the impact of key elements driving the output value of innovation clusters based on panel data of biopharmaceutical innovation clusters in the Yangtze River Delta from 2012 to 2021 to explore the dynamics system of biopharmaceutical innovation cluster development and the impact of each subsystem element on the evolution of the clusters. The empirical evidence finds that market demand subsystem provides fundamental driving force for innovation cluster evolution, and the influence of domestic market demand is particularly significant. Innovation capability subsystem is the endogenous driving force for cluster evolution, but continued high growth in R D investment may not be conducive to cluster development. Government support subsystem is the exogenous driving force for cluster evolution, and the influence is significant. It is suggested to implement a unified large market strategy for high-quality development in the Yangtze River Delta region. To construct an innovation chain with the combination of resources from four sides of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Anhui. To implement a regional governmental public value creation cooperation strategy to form a sustainable development support system for innovation clusters.