高水平游泳运动员临界速度变化对中长距离自由泳成绩变化影响研究

目的:检验采用比赛数据计算高水平游泳运动员临界速度的可行性和有效性,探索高水平游泳运动员临界速度同比变化对中长距离自由泳成绩同比变化的影响,建立临界速度同比变化对高水平游泳运动员长距离自由泳成绩同比变化概率的预测回归模型。方法:收集2011-2018年中长距离自由泳项目(200~1500 m)世界游泳排名Top100的信息,采用距离-时间模型计算临界速度,用线性回归评估临界速度与中长距离游泳项目成绩的关系,使用逻辑回归(logistics)评价临界速度同比变化对成绩同比变化的影响。结果:临界速度可以分别解释200 m、400 m、800 m和1500 m自由泳成绩变化的76.8%、87.2%、90.7%和99.5%。当临界速度同比提高时,长距离项目(800 m和1500 m)成绩同比提高是成绩同比下降的30倍。当临界速度同比提高/下降1%~6%时,长距离项目(800 m和1500 m)成绩同比提高/下降的发生概率约为80%~100%。结论:采用比赛参数(比赛成绩和比赛距离)计算临界速度是可行和有效的;临界速度同比变化百分比(提高/下降)能预测成绩同比变化,是解释长距离自由泳成绩同比变化的关键因素。

The Impact of Critical Velocity Variation on the Performance of Elite Middleand Long-distance Swimmers

Objective:To examine the feasibility and validation of critical velocity(CV)in elite swimmers by using competition data,and to investigate the effect of year-on-year’s CV variation on the year-on-year’s performance in elite middle-and longdistance swimmers.The logistic regression model was developed based on variation of year-on-year’s CV to predict incidence probability for the variation on the time of elite long-distance freestylers.Methods:The results of the top 100 world swimmers from 200 m to 1500 m freestyle events during 2011 to 2018 were collected.CV were calculated by using distance-time model,and the relationships between performance time and CV in middle-and long-distance freestylers were examined.The effect of year-on-year’s CV variation on the year-on-year’s performance time variation in middle-and long-distance freestyle was evaluated by logistic regression model.Results:76.8%,87.2%,90.7%and 99.5%variation of performance for 200 m,400 m,800 m and 1500 m freestyle events can be explained by CV respectively.With increasing CV,swimmers who have improved their longdistance freestyle(800 m and 1500 m)performance showed 30 times odds ratio more than those who have not improved their CV.When CV was increased or decreased 1%~6%yearly,the probability of performance increase or decrease in long distance freestyle will reach to 80%~100%.Conclusion:The feasibility and validation of CV by calculating from competition data is acceptable.The performance variation of year-on-year’s CV percentage is a key factor to explain the performance variation of year-on-year’s long-distance freestyle events.