| 技术预见方法的探索与实践思考——基于德尔菲法和技术路线图的对接 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐磊.技术预见方法的探索与实践思考——基于德尔菲法和技术路线图的对接[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2011,32(11). |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐磊 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海市科学学研究所,上海,200235 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市科技发展基金软科学研究项目(09692108100) |
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| 摘 要： | 随着技术预见的发展,德尔菲法和技术路线图作为技术预见的两种重要研究方法,正在出现相互融合的趋势。以上海开展技术预见研究为例,分析德尔菲法和技术路线图的优劣势,并通过整体设计实现德尔菲法与技术路线图法的对接,为技术预见的发展提供新的视角。
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| 关 键 词： | 技术预见 德尔菲法 技术路线图 |
The Research of Technology Foresight Method:Based on Delphi and Technology Roadmap Integration |
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| XU Lei.The Research of Technology Foresight Method:Based on Delphi and Technology Roadmap Integration[J].Science of Science and Management of S.& T.,2011,32(11). |
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| Authors: | XU Lei |
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| Institution: | XU Lei(Shanghai institution of science for science,Shanghai 200235,China) |
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| Abstract: | With development of technology foresight,the Delphi method and technology roadmap are reciprocally integrating,which are two important method of technology foresight.The article takes development of technology foresight activity in Shanghai as example,analyzing the merits and demerits of the Delphi method and technology roadmap,and integrating two methods to provide a new visual angle for technology foresight development. |
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| Keywords: | Technology foresight Delphi technology roadmap |
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