透视中国FDI流入的出口贸易结构效应——基于改革开放以来时间序列数据检验

本文研究FDI流入的出口贸易结构效应，并将其界定为贸易方式与贸易商品两种结构效应，通过经验数据深入分析其变化的原因。实证结果表明：FDI的出口贸易结构效应呈现周期性波动，周期界于3—5年；直接与间接效应差异巨大，动态变化同样呈现周期性，正效应与负效应并存。在此基础上，有针对性地提出促进国际直接投资贸易结构正效应发挥的政策措施。

Research on the Trade Effect of FDI Inflow——Test with the Time Series Data from Opening and Reform

In the paper, FDI- in- flow in the structure of export trade effect is defined as trade terms and commodity trade structure of the two effects, and through in - depth analysis of empirical data on the reasons for the changes. The empirical results indicate that FDI in the structure of expert trade has shown signs of cyclical fluctuations in effect, the cycle industry in three to five years; direct and indirect effects, the differences in dynamic cyclical changes in the same show, and the effect are both negative effect. On the basis, the paper gives a targeted policy measures to promote the effect of international direct investment to the trade structure.