进化的群体决策机制--联盟群决策方案德尔菲法一致性调整

结合国外日趋流行的进化博弈思潮，鉴于德尔菲法具有改进方案的功能，本文提出并分析了一种基于进化博弈思想的改进德尔菲法，例举了一个三方成员通过改进的德尔菲法决策程序，不断学习调整，最终达成一致的群博弈算例。该决策机制对企业间合作联盟的决策有很逼真揭示和说明，反映了群体决策实际是联盟成员有机互动的过程。

A Evolutionary Group's Decision-making Mechanism

This paper provides and analysis an improved Delphi technique in view of the evolutionary games ideology, and gives a 3-players game model with algorithm. In the example, players use the improved Delphi technique, learning and studying with each other; finally they achieve an identical solution. This group's decision-making mechanism is very true to life to explain and illustrate a group's decision-making of firm's alliance. It makes us known that a group's decision-making is a process of alliance members influencing with each other.