中国男子篮球职业联赛风险评价指标模型构建研究

探讨中国男子篮球职业联赛(简称"中职篮")风险类型,甄别与评价联赛风险现实状态。采用文献资料、德尔菲、因子分析等方法,基于联赛风险源为基础,联赛实际为导向,构建出包括4个潜在风险因子与28个指标变量的中职篮联赛风险评价指标结构模型,并结合结构模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明,中职篮风险因子排序依次为运营风险、治安风险、经济风险、竞技风险,4类因子的产生原因、风险特性与损失程度等不尽相同。并提出从规避运营风险、防控治安风险、规范经济风险与辨析竞技风险等视角出发,依次建立中职篮联盟化组织架构;构建赛前、赛中与赛后防控体系;完善联赛财政治理结构;明晰现实困境,框定竞技诉求等风险管理措施。

Research on the Risk Evaluation Index Model Construction of Chinese Basketball Association

This article is to explore the risk types of Chinese Basketball Association(hereinafter referred to as"CBA"),to identify and evaluate the risk reality of the league.Through literature material,Delphi and factor analysis methods,and based on its risk sources and oriented by its reality,a risk evaluation index construction model of CBA is structured,which includes4 potential risk factors and 28 index variables.An empirical analysis is carried out based on the structural model.The research results show that the order of risk factors in CBA follows the sequence of operational risk,public security risk,economic risk and competitive risk.The causes,the risk characteristics and the loss degree of these four types of factors are different.It proposes to establish a CBA federalization organizational structure successively from the perspectives of avoiding operational risks,preventing and controlling public security risks,standardizing economic risks and discriminating and analyzing competitive risks;to construct prevention and control system before,during and after competition;to improve the financial governance structure;and to clarify practical dilemma,to frame competitive demands and other risk management measures.