基于生产函数的中国能源消费与经济增长的多变量协整关系的分析

本文基于生产函数的多变量分析,以1978年-2008年样本区间数据为基础,利用Johansen-Juselius协整检验法和基于向量误差修正模型的短期、长期Granger因果关系检验,研究了我国经济增长、能源消费、资本存量和人力资本投入这四个变量之间的协整关系和Granger因果关系。实证研究结果表明:1978年至今,我国经济的增长与能源消费总量、资本存量和人力资本的投入之间存在长期的协整关系。而且研究表明:短期内并不存在能源消费与经济增长之间的单向或双向Granger因果关系。但是长期来看,它们之间存在单向Granger因果关系:经济增长是能源消费的Granger原因。据此说明:我国目前的经济增长并不是很强的能源依赖型体系。最后,从我国经济可持续发展的视角,对我国的能源消费和经济增长模式提出了一些建议。

Cointegration Analysis of Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in China Using a Multivariate Framework Based on Neo-Classical Production

The study of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been a hot topic in recent decades. Many studies have attempted to investigate the causal relationship between consumption and growth using the Granger causality method for China; however, these studies have not reached a consensus on the role of energy consumption in economic growth. A methodological development in this field has been the use of a multivariate framework and the application of vector error correction models (VECM) rather than vector autoregressive (VAR) testing. The VAR model may suggest a short run relationship between variables because the long run information is removed in the first differencing, and a VECM avoids such shortcomings. The purpose of this paper is to re-investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for China from 1978-2008 using a multivariate framework based on neo-classical production function where economic output, energy consumption, capital stock and labor level are treated as variables. To examine the existence of cointegration and Granger causality in the long and short run among variables, we employ a VECM and the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test method. Our results show that economic growth, energy consumption, capital and employment show a cointegration relationship so we established a VECM on these and tested the existence and direction of causality. The results suggest no Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the short run, but a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption in the long run. An important policy implication resulting from this analysis is that the Chinese government can achieve energy conservation and carbon emission reduction without a negative effect on economic growth in the long run. We discuss these results and make some suggestions from the perspective of China's economic and sustainable development.