1957年至2007年淮北平原气候变率及气候基本态特征

运用1957年-2007年淮北平原23个气象站的逐月气温和降水资料,从平均值和变率等方面分析了淮北平原近51a的气候变化。结果表明:①近51a来淮北平原春、秋、冬季及年气温增温趋势显著,尤其是春、冬季;降水呈不显著的增长趋势。气温和降水由低基本态向高基本态过渡,目前均处于高气候基本态下;②无论是气温还是降水,其变率随时间而变,目前均处于大气候变率时段,要注意高气候基本态和大气候变率结合易导致的高温、洪涝等极端气候事件;③20世纪60年代、70年代异常低温(寒冬)和异常高温(酷暑)出现频率高;80年代呈"凉夏"特点,极端气温事件较少;90年代以来持续"暖冬",异常高温(酷暑)有所增加。20世纪60年代、70年代和90年代以来降水极端事件发生频率较高,但前者以少雨(干旱)为主,后者以多雨(洪涝)为主。

Characteristics of Climate Variability and Climate Base State in Huaibei Plain 1957-2007

Understanding climate variability and climate base state is an important prerequisite of rational development and utilization of regional climate resources. The Huaibei plain is an ideal area for studying this because the climate signature of the area is transitional and it is located near the dividing line between the North-South China climates, and therefore sensitive. Based on monthly average temperature and precipitation data from 1957-2007 from 23 stations across the Huaibei plain, the climate basic state, climate variability and temperature and precipitation were analyzed using the moving average value, moving average variance and anomaly index. The results indicate that warming is the primary mode of climate change, especially in winter. Precipitation increased from 1957 and 2007. The climate base state of temperature and precipitation vary from low to high in the past 51 years. Climate variability also varies with time, and temperature and precipitation is in a phase of high climate base state and high climate variability at present. Therefore, future frequent extreme climatic events are worth noting. Anomalous cold in winter and hot in summer occurred most frequently in the 1960s and 1970s, and least in the 1980s. Warm winters and anomalous high temperatures (summer) have increased since the 1990s. Precipitation was less (drought) in the 1960s and 1970s and increased (flood) after the 1990s, at the same time as extreme precipitation events frequently occurred. Additionally, because of the close correlation between climate and agricultural activities, agricultural activity across the Huaibei plain will be affected by variability in climate. Impacts include the multiple cropping index increasing because of improving heat conditions for agricultural production; the crop development period will be brought forward and lead to adverse effects on the growth of winter wheat; rising temperatures in spring and winter will result in invalid evaporation of soil moisture of farmland and the exacerbation of drought in spring; and the amount of pesticide application will increase because warming can lead to increasing pests and disease.