全球农产品贸易的虚拟耕地资源流动演变及影响因素

为定量探讨农产品贸易的耕地资源效应,本文在核算1986—2016年全球农产品贸易隐含耕地资源量的基础上,揭示了全球虚拟耕地资源流动演变特征;采用贸易引力模型,分析了影响全球虚拟耕地流动演变的因素。结果表明：①1986—2016年全球农产品贸易导致的虚拟耕地资源流动量增长1.74倍,虚拟耕地输出国（地区）主要集中在耕地资源充裕国家（地区）,且输出量迅速增加,虚拟耕地输入国（地区）则主要为人均耕地资源较低或经济发展迅速的国家（地区）。②从社会经济、资源禀赋及区域关联选取相应指标对虚拟耕地流动演变的影响因素分析表明,人口规模、人均收入、贸易协定对虚拟耕地流动具有显著促进作用,其中,人均收入增长对经济发展程度不同的国家（地区）影响具有显著差异;输入国（地区）土地和水资源禀赋对其虚拟耕地流动具有显著的负效应,贸易国（地区）之间的地理距离对虚拟耕地流动具有显著的负效应。中国自2004年开始成为全球最大的虚拟耕地净输入国,作为耕地资源绝对稀缺国家,随着中国人均收入的提高、人均农业资源短缺的加剧,虚拟耕地资源输入量将持续增加,应采取相应措施,保障虚拟耕地的可持续供给。

Evolution of global virtual land flow related to agricultural trade and driving factors

In order to explore the effects of agricultural trade on land resources, this study analyzes the evolution of virtual land trade in relation to global agricultural trade, and reveals the driven factors behind the change trend by the trade gravity equation at the basis of virtual land calculation during 1986 to 2016. The results show that: the volume of global virtual land trade has increased by 1.74 times during 1986 to 2016, oil crops substitute the cereals and became the major categories of land exchange. The volume of virtual land exports increased rapidly in countries with abundant land resources, and countries with scarce land resources and rapid economic development became land importers. Population size, per capita income and trade agreements had a significant promoting effect on virtual land flow, but the impact of income varied in different economic development countries. The land and water resource endowment of the importers had a significant negative effect on the flow of virtual land, and the geographical distance between trading countries had a significant negative effect on the flow of virtual land. China has become the world’s largest importer of virtual land since 2004, and the volume of its virtual land import will continue to increase with the increase of income and shortage of agricultural resources. Thus China should take corresponding measures to ensure the sustainable supply of virtual land.