中国城镇居民生活能源消费影响因素及其效应分析——基于八区域的静态面板数据模型

探究城镇居民生活能源消费的影响因素可为引导城镇居民生活能源合理消费提供依据。本文以中国八大区域为研究对象,建立静态面板数据模型挖掘2000-2013年节能政策、居民实际消费支出、能源价格对城镇居民生活能耗的影响。研究结果显示：城镇居民生活能耗与居民实际消费支出、能源价格、节能政策之间存在长期协整关系;能源价格对城镇居民生活能耗的影响最大,且具有显著负向作用,而实际消费支出对生活能耗具有显著正向作用,但城镇居民生活能源消费增长速度小于实际消费支出增长速度;节能政策的滞后期为2年,即政策颁布2年后对生活能耗具有一定抑制作用但该作用较小;由于经济发展水平及环境气候引起的居民取暖制冷需求的不同,节能政策、实际消费支出、能源价格对于生活能耗的影响呈现出显著的空间差异。由此建议：应通过调整居民实际消费支出结构、适当提高能源价格、加强节能政策的宣传与执行等方式降低生活能耗。

Factors affecting Chinese urban household energy consumption and spatial differences based on static panel data modelling for eight regions

Exploring the factors that influence urban household energy consumption provides a basis for the reasonable energy consumption of urban residents in China. Based on eight regions in China （Beijing-Tianjin region,northeast region,northern coastal region,southern coastal region,eastern coastal region,central region,southwest region,northwest region）we establish a static panel data model to analyze the impact of actual consumption expenditure,energy price and energy saving policy on the energy consumption of urban residents from 2000 to 2013. We found a long-term cointegration relationship between urban household energy consumption and actual consumption,energy prices and energy saving policy. Energy price has the greatest negative effect on the energy consumption of urban residents. Actual consumption expenditure has a significant positive effect on household energy consumption,and its growth rate is greater than urban household energy consumption. The lag period of energy saving policy is two years,in other words,energy saving policy has a certain effect on household energy consumption after two years but the effect is small. Due to the level of economic development,household energy is mainly used in heating and cooling （climate becomes a key factor influencing residential energy consumption）and the effects of energy saving policy,actual consumption expenditure and energy price on household energy consumption show spatial differences. Since the level of economic development and energy saving policy both play an important role in household energy consumption,we should reduce urban household energy consumption by adjusting the structure of household consumption expenditure,increasing the price of energy,and strengthening advocacy and implementation of energy saving policy.