能源政策的区域碳减排效应

评估能源政策的区域碳减排效应并探究其作用机制对实现碳中和、碳达峰目标意义重大。本文基于2003—2019年中国30个省的面板数据,首先,利用多期双重差分模型进行能源政策对碳排放的效应评估;其次,将能源政策分为开发型和节约型政策,评估了两种政策的减排有效性和持续性;再次,通过构建含有交互项的面板固定效应模型,探究能源政策对区域碳减排的作用机制;最后,基于经济发展水平和能源禀赋情况将区域划分为东中西和能源贫富区展开进一步分析。研究表明：①能源政策的实施可以显著促进区域碳减排,在经过了平行趋势检验和稳健性检验后,结果仍然成立;其中,节约型政策的当期减排效果更好,而开发型政策的减排持续性更强。②技术创新在能源政策的碳减排作用中存在负向调节作用,而能源消费结构、产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化可以提高能源政策对碳减排的积极效。③能源政策的碳减排机制存在显著的区域异质性。东部地区可依靠绿色技术创新和产业结构升级加强政策的碳减排作用,而中西部地区的政策碳减排效应不显著;能源富集区可在产业和能源消费的结构效应下发挥政策的碳减排作用,能源贫乏区的政策需与绿色技术创新协同发力。研究结论对中国能源政策制定和碳减排具有一定指导意义。

Effect of energy policies on regional carbon emission reduction

Exploring the mechanism of energy policy impact on regional carbon emissions is of great significance for achieving the carbon neutrality and carbon peaking goals. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China’s mainland from 2003 to 2019, this study first evaluated the effect of energy policies on carbon emissions through a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model. Second, we divided energy policies into development-oriented and conservation-oriented, and the effectiveness and sustainability of emission reduction of the two types of policies were evaluated. Third, by constructing a panel fixed-effect model with interactive terms, the mechanism of energy policy impact on regional carbon emission reduction was explored. Finally, based on the levels of economic development and energy endowments, the provinces were divided into eastern, central, and western regions and energy rich and poor regions for further analysis. The results show that: (1) The implementation of energy policies can significantly promote regional carbon emission reduction, and the results are still valid after parallel trend test and a series of robustness tests. (2) The emission reduction effect of the current conservation-oriented policies is stronger, while the emission reduction of the development-oriented policies is more sustainable. (3) Technological innovation has a negative moderation effect in carbon emission reduction of energy policies, while energy consumption structure, industrial structure upgrading, and industrial structure optimization can improve the positive effect of energy policies on carbon emission reduction. (4) There exists significant regional heterogeneity in the carbon emission reduction mechanism of energy policies.The eastern region can rely on green technology innovation and industrial structure upgrade to strengthen the carbon emission reduction effect of the policy, while the carbon emission reduction effect of the policy in the central and western region is not significant; Energy rich region can play a role in reducing carbon emissions under the structural effects of industry and energy consumption, while policies in energy poor region need to be coordinated with green technology innovation. The results are of guiding significance for China’s energy policy making and carbon emission reduction.